Oklahoma @ Tulsa: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2023)

Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Tulsa

Weather at kickoff81°F5 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Oklahoma

2-0 · Power #9

▲ winner

Final

Tulsa

1-1 · Power #118

final

Closing spread

OU -28

✓ OU W

Total

59.5

▲ Over · 83 pts

Model before kickoff

OU 42–17 TLSA

✓ OU (97%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOU -28

Total59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseOU -28

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close59.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOU -28

Total59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 3 games most like OU as a 28-point road favorite at TLSA, the favorite won 3, covered 1, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: OU won 66–17; the favorite covered, as in 1 of the 3 similar games. 83 points went over 59.5, as in 1 of 3.

Favorite won

3 of 3100%

Normal range · usually 94%

Favorite covered

1 of 333%

Normal range · usually 58%

Went over

1 of 333%

Normal range · usually 62%

Only 3 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 23 against an average line of 26.2; 51 points a game (usually 59.2). When games like this go over ›

All 3 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	CIN @ TULN 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & total	-28	31–12	L	U61.5
Loose	MICH @ IU 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & total	-23.5	31–10	L	U57.5
Loose	OSU @ MSU 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & spread	-27	49–20	W	O64.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OU WW	2-0	100%	—	2-0
TLSA LP	0-1-1	0%	0-1	0-0-1

Venue/role: OU away, as favorite; TLSA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OU –U	0-1	0%	2-0
TLSA UU	0-2	0%	1-1

Went over in Q3. Of 24 earlier overs in games with totals 55.5–63.5, 38% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OUlast 2	2-0 100%	2-0 100%	0-1 0%
TLSAlast 2	1-1 50%	0-1-1 0%	0-2 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OU+20.5 →+10.9▼ 9.6#13

TLSA+3.9 →−5.4▼ 9.3#96

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

Longer bar = better

TLSA

#13

Offense

◀ OU better

#72

#17

Defense

◀ OU better

#107

+1.5 #14

Turnovers

◀ OU better

−0.5 #89

78 plays #8

Pace

◀ OU faster

71 plays #41

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OU has the ball

Advantage: OU offense

	OU off	TLSA def	Edge
Points / game	50.5 #6	25.0 #79	OU
Yards / play	6.46 #40	6.22 #113	OU
PPA / play	+0.52 #6	+0.23 #110	OU
Success rate	64% #1	50% #124	OU

When TLSA has the ball

Advantage: OU defense

	TLSA off	OU def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #90	5.5 #6	OU
Yards / play	5.92 #65	4.46 #30	OU
PPA / play	+0.10 #82	−0.13 #22	OU
Success rate	46% #52	30% #11	OU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 48 FBS teams

OU scoring against the TLSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OU scored	17.5	12.0	29.5	10.5	10.5	21.0
TLSA allowed	10.5	4.0	14.5	7.0	3.5	10.5

TLSA scoring against the OU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TLSA scored	1.5	14.0	15.5	3.5	7.0	10.5
OU allowed	1.5	0.0	1.5	0.0	4.0	4.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.