Miami (OH) @ Cincinnati: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2023)

Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Cincinnati

Weather at kickoff73°F2 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›

Miami (OH)

1-1 · Power #78

▲ winner

Final

Cincinnati

2-0 · Power #76

final

Closing spread

CIN -14.5

✓ M-OH W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

M-OH 19–33 CIN

✗ CIN (84%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCIN -14.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseCIN -14.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close44.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCIN -14.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CIN as a 14.5-point home favorite against M-OH, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: M-OH won 31–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 44.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 83%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.8 against an average line of 14.3; 47.2 points a game (usually 55.9). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	PITT vs NCST 2020 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-14	29–30	L	O46
Close	TULN vs USM 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & rest	-11.75	24–27	L	O48.5
Close	CIN vs TLSA 2020 · Week 16 · close · similar total & rest	-14	27–24	L	O44.5
Loose	MINN vs ILL 2021 · Week 10 · loose · similar spread & total	-14.5	6–14	L	U44
Loose	USA vs ODU 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & total	-16.5	27–20	L	P47
Loose	ASU vs COLO 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & spread	-14	35–13	W	O45.5
Loose	UNLV vs UNM 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar total & spread	-14	31–20	L	O44.25
Loose	USA vs TXST 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & total	-16	38–21	W	O46
Loose	ILL vs MSU 2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & spread	-16	15–23	L	U41
Loose	CIN vs HOU 2020 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & spread	-12.5	38–10	W	U51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
M-OH LW	1-1	50%	1-1	0-1
CIN WW	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: M-OH away, as underdog; CIN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
M-OH –O	1-0	100%	1-1
CIN OO	2-0	100%	2-0

Went over in Q4. Of 26 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–48.5, 27% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
M-OHlast 2	1-1 50%	1-1 50%	1-0 100%
CINlast 2	2-0 100%	2-0 100%	2-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

M-OH−11.1 →−4.2▲ 6.9#90

CIN+1.0 →+3.0▲ 2.0#46

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

M-OH

Longer bar = better

CIN

#94

Offense

CIN better ▶

#23

#107

Defense

CIN better ▶

#33

0.0 #67

Turnovers

CIN better ▶

+1.0 #27

53 plays #131

Pace

CIN faster ▶

70 plays #47

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When M-OH has the ball

Advantage: CIN defense

	M-OH off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	22.0 #107	17.0 #44	CIN
Yards / play	6.24 #50	4.78 #44	Even
PPA / play	+0.05 #100	−0.03 #38	CIN
Success rate	35% #120	29% #5	CIN

When CIN has the ball

Advantage: CIN offense

	CIN off	M-OH def	Edge
Points / game	46.5 #11	33.0 #117	CIN
Yards / play	7.41 #13	6.34 #120	CIN
PPA / play	+0.47 #10	+0.10 #83	CIN
Success rate	45% #56	46% #109	CIN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 80 FBS teams

M-OH scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
M-OH scored	10.5	5.0	15.5	1.5	5.0	6.5
CIN allowed	3.5	3.5	7.0	1.5	8.5	10.0

CIN scoring against the M-OH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	15.5	15.5	31.0	8.5	7.0	15.5
M-OH allowed	5.0	6.5	11.5	11.0	10.5	21.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.