Kansas State @ Missouri: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2023)

Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Missouri

Weather at kickoff72°F4 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Kansas State

2-0 · Power #11

final

Final

Missouri

2-0 · Power #12

▲ winner

Closing spread

KSU -3.5

✓ MIZ W

Total

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

KSU 26–23 MIZ

✗ KSU (60%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseKSU -3.5

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseKSU -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseKSU -3.5

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KSU as a 3.5-point road favorite at MIZ, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: MIZ won 30–27 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 48, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.5 against an average line of 2.9; 50.9 points a game (usually 54.7). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CIN @ IU 2021 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4	38–24	W	O50
Close	MINN @ MSU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	34–7	W	U50
Close	MSST @ LSU 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	16–31	L	U53
Close	MICH @ NEB 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	32–29	W	O50
Close	MSST @ UK 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	17–27	L	U50.5
Close	ASU @ BYU 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	17–27	L	U50.5
Close	BAY @ WVU 2020 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-1.5	21–27	L	U54
Close	NCST @ MSST 2021 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & rest	-1.5	10–24	L	U55.5
Close	PSU @ AUB 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar total & rest	-2.5	41–12	W	O47.5
Close	PITT @ TENN 2021 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	41–34	W	O56

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KSU WW	2-0	100%	—	2-0
MIZ LL	0-2	0%	0-2	—

Venue/role: KSU away, as favorite; MIZ home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KSU UO	1-1	50%	2-0
MIZ OU	1-1	50%	2-0

Went over in Q4. Of 31 earlier overs in games with totals 44–52, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KSUlast 2	2-0 100%	2-0 100%	1-1 50%
MIZlast 2	2-0 100%	0-2 0%	1-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KSU+2.0 →+6.6▲ 4.6#26

MIZ+0.4 →+1.7▲ 1.3#54

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

KSU

Longer bar = better

MIZ

#21

Offense

◀ KSU better

#54

#10

Defense

◀ KSU better

#29

0.0 #78

Turnovers

Even

−0.5 #88

71 plays #44

Pace

◀ KSU faster

66 plays #74

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KSU has the ball

Even matchup

	KSU off	MIZ def	Edge
Points / game	43.5 #19	14.5 #31	Even
Yards / play	6.99 #21	3.83 #9	Even
PPA / play	+0.36 #22	+0.02 #58	KSU
Success rate	53% #22	31% #17	Even

When MIZ has the ball

Advantage: KSU defense

	MIZ off	KSU def	Edge
Points / game	29.0 #72	6.5 #7	KSU
Yards / play	5.82 #69	3.98 #13	KSU
PPA / play	+0.24 #43	−0.15 #14	KSU
Success rate	50% #31	25% #5	KSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 22 FBS teams

KSU scoring against the MIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KSU scored	7.0	21.0	28.0	5.0	10.5	15.5
MIZ allowed	0.0	5.0	5.0	1.5	8.0	9.5

MIZ scoring against the KSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIZ scored	8.5	10.5	19.0	3.0	7.0	10.0
KSU allowed	0.0	5.0	5.0	0.0	1.5	1.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.