Alabama @ South Florida: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2023)

Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at South Florida

Weather at kickoff88°F3 mphgusts 20Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Alabama

1-1 · Power #7

▲ winner

Final

South Florida

1-1 · Power #95

final

Closing spread

ALA -34.5

✓ USF W

Total

▼ Under · 20 pts

Model before kickoff

ALA 43–14 USF

✓ ALA (98%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseALA -34.5

Total61

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ALA WL	1-1	50%	—	1-1
USF LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: ALA away, as favorite; USF home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ALA –O	1-0	100%	1-1
USF –U	0-1	0%	1-1

Stayed under: it needed 49 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 41% of games with totals 57–65 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ALAlast 2	1-1 50%	1-1 50%	1-0 100%
USFlast 2	1-1 50%	0-2 0%	0-1 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ALA+13.1 →+6.4▼ 6.7#29

USF−3.1 →−3.3▼ 0.2#87

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

ALA

Longer bar = better

USF

#65

Offense

◀ ALA better

#124

#26

Defense

◀ ALA better

#76

+0.3 #55

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #54

64 plays #95

Pace

USF faster ▶

83 plays #2

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ALA has the ball

Even matchup

	ALA off	USF def	Edge
Points / game	32.3 #59	27.3 #92	ALA
Yards / play	5.77 #73	5.56 #85	Even
PPA / play	+0.17 #57	+0.11 #87	ALA
Success rate	42% #69	36% #41	USF

When USF has the ball

Advantage: ALA defense

	USF off	ALA def	Edge
Points / game	21.7 #107	14.7 #29	ALA
Yards / play	4.58 #128	4.42 #26	ALA
PPA / play	−0.07 #131	−0.05 #34	ALA
Success rate	32% #131	32% #15	ALA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 48 FBS teams

ALA scoring against the USF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ALA scored	7.0	10.0	17.0	12.0	11.0	23.0
USF allowed	7.0	8.5	15.5	8.5	8.5	17.0

USF scoring against the ALA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USF scored	14.0	6.5	20.5	7.0	3.5	10.5
ALA allowed	1.5	5.0	6.5	3.5	10.5	14.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.