Army @ UTSA: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2023)

Fri, Sep 15, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at UTSA

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Army

1-1 · Power #104

▲ winner

Final

UTSA

1-1 · Power #56

final

Closing spread

UTSA -7

✓ ARMY W

Total

▲ Over · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

ARMY 21–27 UTSA

✗ UTSA (66%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUTSA -7

Total42

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUTSA -7

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close42

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUTSA -7

Total42

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UTSA as a 7-point home favorite against ARMY, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ARMY won 37–29 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 66 points went over 42, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.4 against an average line of 4.9; 43.6 points a game (usually 54.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	OKST vs KSU 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6	31–20	W	O47.5
Close	PSU vs MINN 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar total & rest	-5.5	45–17	W	O43
Close	SC vs TROY 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & total	-6.5	23–14	W	U43.5
Close	WISC vs ILL 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & total	-6.5	10–34	L	O43.5
Close	OKST vs BAY 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-4	24–14	W	U47
Close	WVU vs KSU 2020 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-5	37–10	W	O46
Close	IOWA vs ISU 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	7–10	L	U39
Close	UK vs LOU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar total & rest	-3.5	26–13	W	U42.5
Close	HOU vs TULN 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-5.5	24–27	L	U52
Close	TULN vs ARMY 2020 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-3	38–12	W	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARMY LW	1-1	50%	0-1	—
UTSA LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-2

Venue/role: ARMY away, as underdog; UTSA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARMY –O	1-0	100%	1-1
UTSA UU	0-2	0%	1-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARMYlast 2	1-1 50%	1-1 50%	1-0 100%
UTSAlast 2	1-1 50%	0-2 0%	0-2 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARMY−0.7 →+3.2▲ 3.9#43

UTSA+0.7 →+1.0▲ 0.3#61

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

ARMY

Longer bar = better

UTSA

#61

Offense

◀ ARMY better

#114

#27

Defense

Even

#40

−1.0 #112

Turnovers

◀ ARMY better

−2.0 #129

60 plays #121

Pace

UTSA faster ▶

82 plays #6

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARMY has the ball

Advantage: UTSA defense

	ARMY off	UTSA def	Edge
Points / game	35.0 #48	15.0 #37	Even
Yards / play	6.70 #28	4.40 #30	Even
PPA / play	+0.12 #72	−0.05 #35	UTSA
Success rate	39% #97	38% #57	UTSA

When UTSA has the ball

Advantage: ARMY defense

	UTSA off	ARMY def	Edge
Points / game	17.0 #123	8.5 #12	ARMY
Yards / play	4.84 #116	3.95 #13	ARMY
PPA / play	−0.01 #118	−0.14 #16	ARMY
Success rate	39% #98	38% #66	ARMY

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 16 FBS teams

ARMY scoring against the UTSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARMY scored	7.5	15.5	23.0	3.5	8.5	12.0
UTSA allowed	3.5	6.5	10.0	3.5	1.5	5.0

UTSA scoring against the ARMY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTSA scored	5.0	3.5	8.5	3.5	5.0	8.5
ARMY allowed	0.0	1.5	1.5	0.0	7.0	7.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.