North Texas @ Louisiana Tech: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2023)

Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Louisiana Tech

Weather at kickoff82°F4 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

North Texas

0-2 · Power #103

▲ winner

Final

Louisiana Tech

2-1 · Power #116

final

Closing spread

LT -4.5

✓ UNT W

Total

66.5

▲ Over · 77 pts

Model before kickoff

UNT 28–33 LT

✗ LT (63%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLT -4.5

Total66.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseLT -4.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close66.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLT -4.5

Total66.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LT as a 4.5-point home favorite against UNT, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UNT won 40–37 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 77 points went over 66.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4 against an average line of 5; 64.2 points a game (usually 54.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	EMU vs NIU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	10–39	L	U64.25
Loose	UNT vs USM 2020 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & season form	-1.5	31–41	L	U74
Loose	LOU vs FSU 2020 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & spread	-5.5	48–16	W	O62.25
Loose	MTSU vs UNT 2020 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & spread	-3.5	35–52	L	O71.5
Loose	USU vs HAW 2021 · Week 9 · loose · similar total & spread	-4	51–31	W	O66
Loose	BC vs GT 2020 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & spread	-3.5	48–27	W	O57.25
Loose	USA vs ARST 2021 · Week 9 · loose · similar total & rest	-9	31–13	W	U66
Loose	EMU vs OHIO 2021 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & spread	-6	26–34	L	U61.75
Loose	NCST vs GT 2020 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest	-7	23–13	W	U61
Loose	TLSA vs NIU 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-6.5	38–35	L	O63

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNT LL	0-2	0%	0-1	—
LT LLW	1-2	33%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: UNT away, as underdog; LT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNT –O	1-0	100%	0-2
LT ––O	1-0	100%	2-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNTlast 2	0-2 0%	0-2 0%	1-0 100%
LTlast 3	2-1 67%	1-2 33%	1-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNT−15.5 →−6.5▲ 9.0#107

LT−2.5 →−4.8▼ 2.3#93

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

UNT

Longer bar = better

#98

Offense

Even

#88

#126

Defense

LT better ▶

#60

−0.5 #97

Turnovers

LT better ▶

−0.3 #83

68 plays #62

Pace

Even

67 plays #69

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNT has the ball

Advantage: LT defense

	UNT off	LT def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #70	25.3 #86	Even
Yards / play	5.73 #75	4.79 #46	LT
PPA / play	−0.05 #129	+0.02 #57	LT
Success rate	35% #119	37% #50	LT

When LT has the ball

Advantage: LT offense

	LT off	UNT def	Edge
Points / game	29.0 #74	52.0 #133	LT
Yards / play	5.97 #62	7.36 #131	LT
PPA / play	+0.04 #105	+0.33 #126	LT
Success rate	37% #111	47% #115	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 80 FBS teams

UNT scoring against the LT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNT scored	8.5	12.0	20.5	3.5	6.0	9.5
LT allowed	11.7 #78	9.0 #51	20.7 #76	2.3 #16	2.3 #6	4.7 #9

LT scoring against the UNT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LT scored	3.3 #64	11.3 #27	14.7 #44	9.0 #21	5.3 #53	14.3 #39
UNT allowed	10.5	14.5	25.0	18.0	9.0	27.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.