Northern Illinois @ Nebraska: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2023)

Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Nebraska

Weather at kickoff76°F11 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

Northern Illinois

1-1 · Power #94

final

Final

Nebraska

0-2 · Power #62

▲ winner

Closing spread

NEB -11.5

✓ NEB W

Total

42.5

▲ Over · 46 pts

Model before kickoff

NIU 17–28 NEB

✓ NEB (79%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNEB -11.5

Total42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseNEB -11.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close42.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNEB -11.5

Total42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NEB as an 11.5-point home favorite against NIU, the favorite won 8, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: NEB won 35–11; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 46 points went over 42.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 78%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.6 against an average line of 11; 44.6 points a game (usually 56.2). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MSU vs RUTG 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-10	27–21	L	O41
Close	FRES vs SDSU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-10.75	32–28	L	O44.5
Close	ARMY vs CONN 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-10.5	34–17	W	O45
Close	NAVY vs TEM 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar total & rest	-14.5	27–20	L	O41.5
Close	MSU vs IU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-12	31–39	L	O47.25
Close	CAL vs COLO 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-8.25	26–3	W	U44
Close	ND vs CAL 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-13.5	24–17	L	P41
Close	TLSA vs NAVY 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar spread	-11	17–20	L	U46
Close	IOWA vs NU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & rest	-11.5	33–13	W	O37.5
Loose	WKU vs USM 2020 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & total	-7.5	10–7	L	U45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NIU WL	1-1	50%	1-0	1-0
NEB WL	1-1	50%	—	—

Venue/role: NIU away, as underdog; NEB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NIU OU	1-1	50%	1-1
NEB –U	0-1	0%	0-2

Went over in Q4. Of 15 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–46.5, 27% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NIUlast 2	1-1 50%	1-1 50%	1-1 50%
NEBlast 2	0-2 0%	1-1 50%	0-1 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NIU−1.1 →−9.6▼ 8.5#120

NEB+0.1 →−1.9▼ 2.0#78

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

NIU

Longer bar = better

NEB

#115

Offense

Even

#110

#45

Defense

◀ NIU better

#67

−1.5 #122

Turnovers

Even

−3.0 #135

75 plays #21

Pace

◀ NIU faster

60 plays #123

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NIU has the ball

Advantage: NEB defense

	NIU off	NEB def	Edge
Points / game	19.0 #120	24.5 #76	NEB
Yards / play	4.68 #122	4.83 #51	NEB
PPA / play	0.00 #116	+0.12 #89	NEB
Success rate	39% #100	37% #53	NEB

When NEB has the ball

Advantage: NIU defense

	NEB off	NIU def	Edge
Points / game	12.0 #128	19.0 #55	NIU
Yards / play	5.34 #94	4.59 #36	NIU
PPA / play	−0.23 #134	−0.01 #49	NIU
Success rate	42% #83	35% #38	NIU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 80 FBS teams

NIU scoring against the NEB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NIU scored	0.0	3.5	3.5	5.0	7.5	12.5
NEB allowed	0.0	8.0	8.0	5.0	11.5	16.5

NEB scoring against the NIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEB scored	0.0	0.0	0.0	7.0	5.0	12.0
NIU allowed	3.5	0.0	3.5	7.0	7.0	14.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.