Central Michigan @ Notre Dame: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2023)

Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 2:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Notre Dame

Weather at kickoff72°F4 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Central Michigan

1-1 · Power #122

final

Final

Notre Dame

3-0 · Power #6

▲ winner

Closing spread

ND -35

✓ CMU W

Total

▲ Over · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

CMU 10–43 ND

✓ ND (99%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseND -35

Total51

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseND -35

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close51

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseND -35

Total51

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ND as a 35-point home favorite against CMU, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: ND won 41–17; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 58 points went over 51, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 98%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 33.8 against an average line of 33.4; 54.6 points a game (usually 56.3). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	BYU vs WKU 2020 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & total	-30.5	41–10	W	U52.5
Loose	MICH vs NEB 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & total	-30.5	34–3	W	U49.5
Loose	ASU vs UNLV 2021 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & spread	-34.5	37–10	L	U55.5
Loose	CIN vs TEM 2021 · Week 6 · loose · similar total & rest	-30	52–3	W	O52.5
Loose	ND vs SYR 2020 · Week 14 · loose · similar total & rest	-34	45–21	L	O51
Loose	CCU vs ULM 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & spread	-33.5	59–6	W	O57.5
Loose	UGA vs GT 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & total	-36.5	37–14	L	O49
Loose	CLEM vs LT 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & rest	-33.5	48–20	L	O53.5
Loose	AUB vs MASS 2023 · Week 1 · loose · similar spread & situation	-35	59–14	W	O52
Loose	MICH vs ECU 2023 · Week 1 · loose · similar spread & total	-35.5	30–3	L	U52

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CMU LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-1
ND WWW	3-0	100%	1-0	3-0

Venue/role: CMU away, as underdog; ND home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CMU –O	1-0	100%	1-1
ND –OO	2-0	100%	3-0

Went over in Q4. Of 44 earlier overs in games with totals 47–55, 41% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CMUlast 2	1-1 50%	0-2 0%	1-0 100%
NDlast 3	3-0 100%	3-0 100%	2-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CMU−7.2 →−8.5▼ 1.3#114

ND+9.1 →+14.9▲ 5.8#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

CMU

Longer bar = better

#104

Offense

ND better ▶

#126

Defense

ND better ▶

#19

−0.3 #85

Turnovers

ND better ▶

+0.8 #35

64 plays #85

Pace

◀ CMU faster

62 plays #110

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CMU has the ball

Advantage: ND defense

	CMU off	ND def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #103	11.8 #17	ND
Yards / play	4.83 #121	3.82 #8	ND
PPA / play	+0.10 #80	−0.04 #33	ND
Success rate	37% #113	31% #16	ND

When ND has the ball

Advantage: ND offense

	ND off	CMU def	Edge
Points / game	46.0 #13	38.0 #123	ND
Yards / play	8.27 #5	7.81 #133	ND
PPA / play	+0.60 #2	+0.36 #129	ND
Success rate	56% #7	48% #117	ND

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 47 FBS teams

CMU scoring against the ND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CMU scored	3.5	14.0	17.5	3.5	5.0	8.5
ND allowed	1.0 #8	2.3 #3	3.3 #2	3.3 #14	3.3 #10	6.7 #9

ND scoring against the CMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ND scored	8.0 #12	18.7 #1	26.7 #3	9.3 #7	11.7 #6	21.0 #6
CMU allowed	3.5	12.0	15.5	7.0	14.0	21.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.