Bowling Green @ Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2023)

Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Michigan

Weather at kickoff62°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Bowling Green

1-1 · Power #80

final

Final

Michigan

2-0 · Power #3

▲ winner

Closing spread

MICH -40.5

✓ BGSU W

Total

53.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

BGSU 7–43 MICH

✓ MICH (100%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMICH -40.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMICH -40.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close53.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMICH -40.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 1 games most like MICH as a 40.5-point home favorite against BGSU, the favorite won 1, covered 0, and 1 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: MICH won 31–6; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 0 of the 1 similar games. 37 points stayed under 53.5, as in 0 of 1.

Favorite won

1 of 1100%

Normal range · usually 100%

Favorite covered

—

Went over

1 of 1100%

Normal range · usually 54%

Only 1 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 39 against an average line of 39; 59 points a game (usually 57.8). When games like this go over ›

All 1 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	OSU vs RUTG 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & spread	-39	49–10	P	O58

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BGSU WW	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0
MICH LL	0-2	0%	0-2	0-2

Venue/role: BGSU away, as underdog; MICH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BGSU –O	1-0	100%	1-1
MICH UU	0-2	0%	2-0

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 53% of games with totals 49.5–57.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BGSUlast 2	1-1 50%	2-0 100%	1-0 100%
MICHlast 2	2-0 100%	0-2 0%	0-2 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BGSU−3.0 →−2.9▲ 0.1#84

MICH+8.4 →+14.8▲ 6.4#4

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

BGSU

Longer bar = better

MICH

#48

Offense

MICH better ▶

#24

#75

Defense

MICH better ▶

#11

−1.5 #121

Turnovers

MICH better ▶

0.0 #68

63 plays #91

Pace

◀ BGSU faster

62 plays #108

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BGSU has the ball

Advantage: MICH defense

	BGSU off	MICH def	Edge
Points / game	31.0 #61	5.0 #2	MICH
Yards / play	6.64 #29	4.14 #22	Even
PPA / play	+0.19 #56	−0.17 #11	MICH
Success rate	47% #45	29% #8	MICH

When MICH has the ball

Advantage: MICH offense

	MICH off	BGSU def	Edge
Points / game	32.5 #58	24.5 #77	Even
Yards / play	7.27 #18	5.58 #85	MICH
PPA / play	+0.54 #3	+0.05 #70	MICH
Success rate	53% #17	39% #67	MICH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 102 FBS teams

BGSU scoring against the MICH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BGSU scored	3.5	14.0	17.5	10.0	3.5	13.5
MICH allowed	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	5.0	5.0

MICH scoring against the BGSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MICH scored	7.0	15.0	22.0	10.5	0.0	10.5
BGSU allowed	6.5	11.5	18.0	3.5	3.0	6.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.