San José State @ Toledo: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2023)

Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Toledo

Weather at kickoff66°F3 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

San José State

1-2 · Power #60

final

Final

Toledo

1-1 · Power #58

▲ winner

Closing spread

TOL -9

✓ SJSU W

Total

56.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

SJSU 25–35 TOL

✓ TOL (77%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTOL -9

Total56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTOL -9

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close56.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTOL -9

Total56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TOL as a 9-point home favorite against SJSU, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: TOL won 21–17; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 56.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16.4 against an average line of 10.6; 51.4 points a game (usually 55). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UVA vs ILL 2021 · Week 2 · very close · similar total & situation	-10.5	42–14	W	U57
Very close	MRSH vs ECU 2021 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & rest	-10	38–42	L	O58.5
Close	UTSA vs MTSU 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & season form	-11.5	27–13	W	U59.5
Close	PUR vs ILL 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-10.5	13–9	L	U53.25
Close	TENN vs SC 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar total & rest	-10.5	45–20	W	O56.5
Close	HOU vs MEM 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & rest	-9.5	31–13	W	U59.25
Close	BUFF vs M-OH 2020 · Week 11 · close · similar total & rest	-7.5	42–10	W	U56
Close	USA vs LT 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-13	38–14	W	U59
Close	SYR vs UVA 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & rest	-9.5	22–20	L	U53.75
Close	TEX vs UTSA 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar total & rest	-13	41–20	W	O57

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SJSU WLW	2-1	67%	1-0	1-1
TOL WW	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: SJSU away, as underdog; TOL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SJSU O–O	2-0	100%	1-2
TOL –O	1-0	100%	1-1

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 47% of games with totals 52.5–60.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SJSUlast 3	1-2 33%	2-1 67%	2-0 100%
TOLlast 2	1-1 50%	2-0 100%	1-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SJSU−9.4 →−6.2▲ 3.2#102

TOL+0.7 →+4.6▲ 3.9#36

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

SJSU

Longer bar = better

TOL

#92

Offense

TOL better ▶

#43

#111

Defense

TOL better ▶

#47

+1.0 #24

Turnovers

◀ SJSU better

0.0 #78

67 plays #69

Pace

TOL faster ▶

71 plays #34

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SJSU has the ball

Advantage: TOL defense

	SJSU off	TOL def	Edge
Points / game	30.3 #71	16.7 #37	TOL
Yards / play	5.33 #100	4.54 #31	TOL
PPA / play	+0.09 #91	−0.01 #50	TOL
Success rate	39% #106	39% #70	TOL

When TOL has the ball

Advantage: TOL offense

	TOL off	SJSU def	Edge
Points / game	40.0 #26	30.5 #107	TOL
Yards / play	6.04 #60	5.90 #105	TOL
PPA / play	+0.26 #36	+0.30 #128	TOL
Success rate	46% #49	45% #104	TOL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 80 FBS teams

SJSU scoring against the TOL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SJSU scored	5.7 #42	12.7 #18	18.3 #26	9.3 #15	7.0 #36	16.3 #29
TOL allowed	3.5	1.5	5.0	6.5	5.0	11.5

TOL scoring against the SJSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TOL scored	12.5	18.5	31.0	7.0	11.5	18.5
SJSU allowed	4.7 #47	10.3 #62	15.0 #61	9.3 #68	9.3 #68	18.7 #75

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.