Western Michigan @ Toledo: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 1:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Toledo · Conference game

Weather at kickoff68°F15 mphgusts 29DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Western Michigan

1-2 · Power #120

final

Final

Toledo

2-1 · Power #58

▲ winner

Closing spread

TOL -21.5

✓ WMU W

Total

51.5

▲ Over · 80 pts

Model before kickoff

WMU 16–36 TOL

✓ TOL (93%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTOL -21.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTOL -21.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close51.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTOL -21.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TOL as a 21.5-point home favorite against WMU, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: TOL won 49–31; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 80 points went over 51.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16.1 against an average line of 21.9; 47.5 points a game (usually 55.5). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UCF vs GT 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-21	27–10	L	U56.5
Close	JMU vs TXST 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & total	-21.75	40–13	W	O51.5
Close	UTSA vs UNLV 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & rest	-21.5	24–17	L	U55.5
Close	ISU vs OHIO 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-20	43–10	W	O48
Close	PITT vs GT 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & rest	-21.5	21–26	L	P47
Close	ASU vs EMU 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-20.5	21–30	L	U56.5
Close	CIN vs USF 2020 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-22	28–7	L	U45.5
Close	ARK vs GASO 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-23	45–10	W	O52.5
Close	BYU vs USF 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-23.5	35–27	L	O54.5
Close	FRES vs UNM 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar total & rest	-24	34–7	W	U51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WMU WLL	1-2	33%	0-2	0-2
TOL WWL	2-1	67%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: WMU away, as underdog; TOL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WMU UUO	1-2	33%	1-2
TOL –OU	1-1	50%	2-1

Went over in Q3. Of 59 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–55.5, 41% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WMUlast 3	1-2 33%	1-2 33%	1-2 33%
TOLlast 3	2-1 67%	2-1 67%	1-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

WMU 24–39 TOL TOL leads · 63 games since 1962 · WMU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WMU−3.0 →−13.1▼ 10.1#129

TOL+0.7 →+0.3▼ 0.4#64

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

WMU

Longer bar = better

TOL

#100

Offense

TOL better ▶

#42

#110

Defense

TOL better ▶

#48

−0.3 #80

Turnovers

Even

0.0 #74

73 plays #23

Pace

Even

71 plays #34

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WMU has the ball

Advantage: TOL defense

	WMU off	TOL def	Edge
Points / game	17.3 #119	16.7 #39	TOL
Yards / play	4.85 #117	4.54 #33	TOL
PPA / play	+0.16 #63	−0.01 #51	Even
Success rate	39% #101	39% #67	TOL

When TOL has the ball

Advantage: TOL offense

	TOL off	WMU def	Edge
Points / game	40.0 #24	35.3 #122	TOL
Yards / play	6.04 #60	6.22 #119	TOL
PPA / play	+0.26 #36	+0.25 #120	TOL
Success rate	46% #47	41% #78	TOL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 131 FBS teams

WMU scoring against the TOL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WMU scored	7.0 #46	5.7 #107	12.7 #91	2.3 #116	2.3 #119	4.7 #126
TOL allowed	2.3 #21	4.3 #29	6.7 #21	6.7 #88	3.3 #25	10.0 #58

TOL scoring against the WMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TOL scored	8.3 #35	14.7 #16	23.0 #19	9.3 #25	7.7 #55	17.0 #37
WMU allowed	5.7 #92	17.3 #130	23.0 #128	9.0 #112	3.3 #25	12.3 #81

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.