Kent State @ Fresno State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Fresno State

Weather at kickoff76°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Kent State

1-2 · Power #133

final

Final

Fresno State

3-0 · Power #71

▲ winner

Closing spread

FRES -27

✓ FRES W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 63 pts

Model before kickoff

KENT 12–39 FRES

✓ FRES (97%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseFRES -27

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseFRES -27

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close47.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseFRES -27

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FRES as a 27-point home favorite against KENT, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: FRES won 53–10; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 63 points went over 47.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 95%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 56%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 18.3 against an average line of 25.3; 50.1 points a game (usually 57.2). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BSU vs UNM 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & spread	-27.5	37–0	W	U48
Very close	UK vs AKR 2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & rest	-25.25	35–3	W	U48.5
Close	IOWA vs WMU 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-28.5	41–10	W	O43.25
Close	BOIS vs CSU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-25	49–10	W	O42.5
Close	SJSU vs NEV 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-24.5	35–28	L	O44.5
Close	FRES vs UNM 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-24	34–7	W	U51
Close	LIB vs NMSU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-24	14–49	L	O50.5
Close	PSU vs NU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-25.5	17–7	L	U50
Close	ORE vs COLO 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-24.5	52–29	L	O49.5
Close	SJSU vs CSU 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-24	28–16	L	U44.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KENT LWW	2-1	67%	1-1	1-1
FRES WLW	2-1	67%	0-1	1-1

Venue/role: KENT away, as underdog; FRES home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KENT –UO	1-1	50%	1-2
FRES –OU	1-1	50%	3-0

Went over in Q3. Of 57 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 30% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KENTlast 3	1-2 33%	2-1 67%	1-1 50%
FRESlast 3	3-0 100%	2-1 67%	1-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KENT−15.5 →−15.1▲ 0.4#131

FRES+4.2 →+5.2▲ 1.0#39

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

KENT

Longer bar = better

FRES

#116

Offense

FRES better ▶

#62

#116

Defense

FRES better ▶

#34

+0.7 #34

Turnovers

FRES better ▶

+2.7 #2

64 plays #103

Pace

FRES faster ▶

79 plays #5

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KENT has the ball

Advantage: FRES defense

	KENT off	FRES def	Edge
Points / game	16.7 #128	22.0 #57	FRES
Yards / play	4.74 #125	4.61 #26	FRES
PPA / play	0.00 #116	−0.05 #24	FRES
Success rate	40% #93	35% #28	FRES

When FRES has the ball

Advantage: FRES offense

	FRES off	KENT def	Edge
Points / game	34.0 #42	31.3 #111	FRES
Yards / play	5.05 #107	5.98 #107	Even
PPA / play	+0.19 #49	+0.24 #121	FRES
Success rate	44% #50	48% #125	FRES

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

KENT scoring against the FRES defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KENT scored	6.7 #60	3.3 #124	10.0 #115	6.7 #64	0.0 #132	6.7 #125
FRES allowed	3.3 #45	4.7 #35	8.0 #35	7.0 #96	4.7 #44	11.7 #74

FRES scoring against the KENT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FRES scored	8.0 #38	7.7 #86	15.7 #61	8.3 #42	6.7 #73	15.0 #55
KENT allowed	7.0 #109	7.0 #69	14.0 #89	7.0 #96	10.3 #121	17.3 #120

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.