Fresno State @ Arizona State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2023)

Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Arizona State

Weather at kickoff96°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Fresno State

2-0 · Power #71

▲ winner

Final

Arizona State

1-1 · Power #101

final

Closing spread

FRES -4

✓ FRES W

Total

▼ Under · 29 pts

Model before kickoff

FRES 30–27 ASU

✓ FRES (61%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseFRES -4

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseFRES -4

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseFRES -4

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FRES as a 4-point road favorite at ASU, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: FRES won 29–0; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 29 points stayed under 48, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14 against an average line of 3.6; 50.2 points a game (usually 54.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MIA @ UVA 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & spread	-3	14–12	L	U48.5
Very close	NEB @ RUTG 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	14–13	L	U50.5
Close	TULN @ USM 2020 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	66–24	W	O54.5
Close	TOL @ SDSU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	14–17	L	U44.5
Close	PITT @ MIA 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & rest	-4.25	42–16	W	O44
Close	LIB @ ODU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar total & rest	-3.5	38–24	W	O47.5
Close	WSU @ STAN 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar total & spread	-3	52–14	W	O48.5
Close	TOL @ CMU 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-5	23–26	L	U53
Close	CAL @ STAN 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	41–11	W	O46
Close	UAB @ FAU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & rest	-4.75	17–24	L	U45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FRES WL	1-1	50%	1-0	0-1
ASU LL	0-2	0%	0-2	0-1

Venue/role: FRES away, as favorite; ASU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FRES –O	1-0	100%	2-0
ASU UU	0-2	0%	1-1

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 57% of games with totals 44–52 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FRESlast 2	2-0 100%	1-1 50%	1-0 100%
ASUlast 2	1-1 50%	0-2 0%	0-2 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FRES+4.2 →+1.8▼ 2.4#52

ASU+0.4 →−3.6▼ 4.0#89

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

FRES

Longer bar = better

ASU

#59

Offense

◀ FRES better

#107

#78

Defense

ASU better ▶

#59

0.0 #68

Turnovers

◀ FRES better

−0.5 #105

78 plays #8

Pace

◀ FRES faster

64 plays #93

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FRES has the ball

Even matchup

	FRES off	ASU def	Edge
Points / game	36.5 #39	24.0 #78	FRES
Yards / play	5.50 #87	4.73 #39	ASU
PPA / play	+0.21 #49	+0.07 #72	FRES
Success rate	43% #61	36% #45	Even

When ASU has the ball

Advantage: FRES defense

	ASU off	FRES def	Edge
Points / game	19.5 #115	33.0 #118	Even
Yards / play	5.06 #105	5.06 #56	FRES
PPA / play	+0.03 #109	+0.07 #73	FRES
Success rate	39% #100	39% #63	FRES

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 125 FBS teams

FRES scoring against the ASU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FRES scored	7.0	8.5	15.5	7.5	8.5	16.0
ASU allowed	0.0	8.5	8.5	7.0	8.5	15.5

ASU scoring against the FRES defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ASU scored	7.0	11.0	18.0	0.0	1.5	1.5
FRES allowed	5.0	7.0	12.0	10.5	7.0	17.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.