New Mexico State @ New Mexico: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2023)

Sat, Sep 16, 2023, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at New Mexico

Weather at kickoff76°F3 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

New Mexico State

1-2 · Power #84

▲ winner

Final

New Mexico

1-1 · Power #117

final

Closing spread

UNM -2.5

✓ NMSU W

Total

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

NMSU 27–28 UNM

✗ UNM (55%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUNM -2.5

Total52

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUNM -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close52

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUNM -2.5

Total52

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNM as a 2.5-point home favorite against NMSU, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: NMSU won 27–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 52, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.8 against an average line of 2.5; 52.8 points a game (usually 54.5). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BALL vs M-OH 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	17–24	L	U53
Very close	GAST vs GASO 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	30–24	W	O51
Very close	BUFF vs M-OH 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	24–20	W	U50.25
Very close	EMU vs CMU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-1	38–19	W	O53.5
Very close	USM vs GAST 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2	14–42	L	O48
Very close	USA vs GASO 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	41–14	W	O49.5
Close	CLT vs MTSU 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	42–39	W	O55.5
Close	DUKE vs UVA 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & rest	-2	38–17	W	P55
Close	GAST vs ODU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & total	-3.5	31–17	W	U53.75
Close	UTEP vs MTSU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	13–24	L	U52

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NMSU LWL	1-2	33%	0-1	0-1
UNM LW	1-1	50%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: NMSU away, as underdog; UNM home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NMSU OOU	2-1	67%	1-2
UNM OO	2-0	100%	1-1

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 58% of games with totals 48–56 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NMSUlast 3	1-2 33%	1-2 33%	2-1 67%
UNMlast 2	1-1 50%	1-1 50%	2-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NMSU−6.9 →−8.5▼ 1.6#116

UNM−11.8 →−13.0▼ 1.2#128

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

NMSU

Longer bar = better

UNM

#26

Offense

Even

#31

#115

Defense

Even

#104

−1.7 #127

Turnovers

UNM better ▶

−0.5 #105

60 plays #121

Pace

Even

58 plays #125

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NMSU has the ball

Advantage: NMSU offense

	NMSU off	UNM def	Edge
Points / game	35.0 #44	31.0 #111	NMSU
Yards / play	8.15 #8	5.16 #60	NMSU
PPA / play	+0.29 #31	+0.26 #122	NMSU
Success rate	52% #22	48% #122	NMSU

When UNM has the ball

Advantage: UNM offense

	UNM off	NMSU def	Edge
Points / game	33.0 #53	31.7 #115	UNM
Yards / play	6.97 #23	6.26 #117	UNM
PPA / play	+0.38 #16	+0.30 #126	UNM
Success rate	50% #30	44% #103	UNM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 114 FBS teams

NMSU scoring against the UNM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NMSU scored	4.3 #83	11.3 #38	15.7 #58	5.7 #68	13.7 #4	19.3 #17
UNM allowed	7.0	15.5	22.5	3.5	5.0	8.5

UNM scoring against the NMSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNM scored	3.5	14.0	17.5	12.0	3.5	15.5
NMSU allowed	4.7 #63	11.0 #96	15.7 #93	6.7 #76	9.3 #95	16.0 #90

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.