New Mexico @ Massachusetts: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Massachusetts

Weather at kickoff57°F8 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

New Mexico

1-2 · Power #117

▲ winner

Final

Massachusetts

1-3 · Power #127

final

Closing spread

MASS -3

✓ UNM W

Total

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

UNM 25–27 MASS

✗ MASS (56%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMASS -3

Total49

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMASS -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close49

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMASS -3

Total49

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MASS as a 3-point home favorite against UNM, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: UNM won 34–31 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 65 points went over 49, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.3 against an average line of 2.9; 48.3 points a game (usually 54.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BUFF vs M-OH 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	24–20	W	U50.25
Very close	BALL vs M-OH 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	17–24	L	U53
Very close	UTEP vs MTSU 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	13–24	L	U52
Very close	TXST vs GASO 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	30–38	L	O52
Very close	CMU vs BUFF 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.75	31–27	W	O54
Very close	RICE vs UTEP 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	37–30	W	O47
Very close	M-OH vs BALL 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	18–17	L	U45
Close	UNM vs NMSU 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.75	17–27	L	U52.25
Close	GAST vs ODU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	31–17	W	U53.75
Close	MTSU vs ODU 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & total	-3	17–24	L	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNM LWL	1-2	33%	0-1	0-1
MASS WLLW	2-2	50%	0-1	—

Venue/role: UNM away, as underdog; MASS home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNM OOU	2-1	67%	1-2
MASS OOOU	3-1	75%	1-3

Went over in Q4. Of 42 earlier overs in games with totals 45–53, 38% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNMlast 3	1-2 33%	1-2 33%	2-1 67%
MASSlast 4	1-3 25%	2-2 50%	3-1 75%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNM−11.8 →−9.7▲ 2.1#115

MASS−11.8 →−14.2▼ 2.4#130

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

UNM

Longer bar = better

MASS

#44

Offense

◀ UNM better

#89

#118

Defense

Even

#123

−0.7 #111

Turnovers

MASS better ▶

−0.3 #76

62 plays #111

Pace

Even

61 plays #121

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNM has the ball

Advantage: UNM offense

	UNM off	MASS def	Edge
Points / game	27.7 #79	37.3 #126	UNM
Yards / play	6.47 #36	7.32 #133	UNM
PPA / play	+0.29 #31	+0.19 #113	UNM
Success rate	51% #28	47% #120	UNM

When MASS has the ball

Advantage: MASS offense

	MASS off	UNM def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #89	29.7 #104	Even
Yards / play	5.96 #66	6.08 #113	MASS
PPA / play	+0.06 #100	+0.33 #130	MASS
Success rate	40% #99	48% #126	MASS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 131 FBS teams

UNM scoring against the MASS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNM scored	3.3 #101	11.7 #36	15.0 #65	8.0 #40	4.7 #95	12.7 #70
MASS allowed	8.5 #121	11.3 #114	19.8 #121	6.0 #86	11.5 #125	17.5 #119

MASS scoring against the UNM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MASS scored	3.5 #99	3.3 #124	6.8 #125	6.0 #75	12.3 #9	18.3 #28
UNM allowed	4.7 #74	16.0 #130	20.7 #122	3.3 #37	5.7 #64	9.0 #42

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.