Texas Tech @ West Virginia: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2023)

Sat, Sep 23, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at West Virginia · Conference game

Weather at kickoff58°F10 mphgusts 26Wet0.0 mmWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Texas Tech

1-2 · Power #45

final

Final

West Virginia

2-1 · Power #39

▲ winner

Closing spread

TTU -6

✓ WVU W

Total

▼ Under · 33 pts

Model before kickoff

TTU 31–26 WVU

✗ TTU (63%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTTU -6

Total53

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTTU -6

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close53

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTTU -6

Total53

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TTU as a 6-point road favorite at WVU, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: WVU won 20–13 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 53, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.6 against an average line of 6; 51 points a game (usually 54.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	VT @ PITT 2020 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-6.5	14–47	L	O53
Very close	UK @ SC 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	16–10	W	U49
Very close	TOL @ BUFF 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	27–34	L	O56
Very close	BYU @ LIB 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	14–41	L	U58
Very close	WASH @ CAL 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-7.5	28–21	L	U54.5
Very close	ORE @ WSU 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	44–41	L	O57.25
Close	BYU @ WSU 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar rest	-3.5	21–19	L	U56.5
Close	MSU @ RUTG 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-4	31–13	W	U50
Close	FSU @ SYR 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-7	38–3	W	U51.25
Close	FSU @ MIA 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	45–3	W	U54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TTU LLW	1-2	33%	0-1	1-1
WVU LWW	2-1	67%	2-0	0-1

Venue/role: TTU away, as favorite; WVU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TTU –UU	0-2	0%	1-2
WVU –OU	1-1	50%	2-1

Stayed under: it needed 38 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 51% of games with totals 49–57 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TTUlast 3	1-2 33%	1-2 33%	0-2 0%
WVUlast 3	2-1 67%	2-1 67%	1-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

TTU 8–7 WVU TTU leads · 15 games since 1937 · TTU has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TTU+2.7 →+3.6▲ 0.9#45

WVU−6.5 →+1.9▲ 8.4#53

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

TTU

Longer bar = better

WVU

#63

Offense

◀ TTU better

#84

#60

Defense

Even

#48

−0.3 #103

Turnovers

WVU better ▶

+0.7 #44

74 plays #20

Pace

◀ TTU faster

70 plays #44

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TTU has the ball

Even matchup

	TTU off	WVU def	Edge
Points / game	34.7 #44	20.3 #56	Even
Yards / play	5.87 #70	5.10 #58	Even
PPA / play	+0.13 #74	−0.06 #30	WVU
Success rate	43% #62	37% #49	Even

When WVU has the ball

Advantage: TTU defense

	WVU off	TTU def	Edge
Points / game	29.3 #73	25.3 #86	Even
Yards / play	5.42 #91	4.87 #45	TTU
PPA / play	+0.07 #93	−0.01 #50	TTU
Success rate	42% #77	38% #60	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 131 FBS teams

TTU scoring against the WVU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TTU scored	15.0 #6	3.0 #125	18.0 #43	8.0 #40	4.3 #103	12.3 #75
WVU allowed	5.7 #92	4.3 #29	10.0 #57	4.7 #59	5.7 #64	10.3 #66

WVU scoring against the TTU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WVU scored	2.3 #112	14.0 #16	16.3 #51	5.7 #79	7.3 #59	13.0 #68
TTU allowed	5.0 #85	4.3 #29	9.3 #53	2.3 #20	8.7 #101	11.0 #71

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.