West Virginia @ TCU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2023)

Sat, Sep 30, 2023, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at TCU · Conference game

Weather at kickoff90°F9 mphgusts 24DryWeather watch ›

West Virginia

3-1 · Power #39

▲ winner

Final

TCU

3-1 · Power #30

final

Closing spread

TCU -14

✓ WVU W

Total

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

WVU 20–33 TCU

✗ TCU (83%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTCU -14

Total52

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTCU -14

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close52

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTCU -14

Total52

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TCU as a 14-point home favorite against WVU, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: WVU won 24–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 52, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 82%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 23 against an average line of 13.5; 56.6 points a game (usually 55.7). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ASU vs STAN 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & spread	-13.5	28–10	W	U53.5
Very close	LOU vs BC 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & rest	-14	56–28	W	O53.5
Very close	CLEM vs SC 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-14	30–31	L	O53
Very close	APP vs TROY 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-14	47–10	W	O50.5
Very close	NCST vs SYR 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-11.5	41–17	W	O49.5
Very close	LSU vs UAB 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-15.25	41–10	W	O50.5
Very close	MISS vs AUB 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-15.5	48–34	L	O55
Very close	CLEM vs SYR 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-14	27–21	L	U50
Very close	NEB vs NU 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & rest	-11.25	56–7	W	O51.5
Very close	PSU vs IU 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-12.25	24–0	W	U54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WVU LWWW	3-1	75%	0-1	1-1
TCU LLWW	2-2	50%	1-2	2-2

Venue/role: WVU away, as underdog; TCU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WVU –OUU	1-2	33%	3-1
TCU –UUU	0-3	0%	3-1

Stayed under: it needed 11 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 58% of games with totals 48–56 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WVUlast 4	3-1 75%	3-1 75%	1-2 33%
TCUlast 4	3-1 75%	2-2 50%	0-3 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

WVU 8–6 TCU WVU leads · 14 games since 1984 · TCU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WVU−6.5 →+1.1▲ 7.6#56

TCU−3.1 →+8.6▲ 11.7#26

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

WVU

Longer bar = better

TCU

#99

Offense

TCU better ▶

#22

#28

Defense

◀ WVU better

#55

0.0 #81

Turnovers

TCU better ▶

+0.3 #49

69 plays #51

Pace

TCU faster ▶

79 plays #6

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WVU has the ball

Advantage: TCU defense

	WVU off	TCU def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #84	20.3 #40	TCU
Yards / play	5.09 #109	5.17 #44	TCU
PPA / play	+0.02 #112	+0.06 #57	TCU
Success rate	40% #91	41% #77	Even

When TCU has the ball

Even matchup

	TCU off	WVU def	Edge
Points / game	38.3 #19	18.5 #33	Even
Yards / play	6.38 #36	4.75 #25	Even
PPA / play	+0.29 #21	−0.07 #20	Even
Success rate	52% #10	36% #33	TCU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

WVU scoring against the TCU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WVU scored	3.5 #107	12.0 #21	15.5 #66	4.3 #102	7.3 #63	11.5 #94
TCU allowed	3.3 #36	7.5 #73	10.8 #56	4.3 #49	5.3 #49	9.5 #42

TCU scoring against the WVU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TCU scored	7.0 #50	11.0 #29	18.0 #41	9.0 #30	11.3 #8	20.3 #10
WVU allowed	5.0 #78	3.3 #10	8.3 #33	3.5 #38	6.8 #74	10.3 #53

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.