TCU @ Iowa State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2023)

Sat, Oct 7, 2023, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Iowa State · Conference game

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TCU

3-2 · Power #30

final

Final

Iowa State

2-3 · Power #35

▲ winner

Closing spread

TCU -6.5

✓ ISU W

Total

—

Model before kickoff

TCU 29–22 ISU

✗ TCU (69%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTCU -6.5

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTCU -6.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close—

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTCU -6.5

Total—

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TCU as a 6.5-point road favorite at ISU, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: ISU won 27–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.4 against an average line of 7.2; 61 points a game (usually 54.5).

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WASH @ CAL 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-7.5	28–21	L	U54.5
Very close	AUB @ SC 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	17–21	L	U45.25
Very close	UNC @ UVA 2020 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	41–44	L	O61
Very close	TEX @ KSU 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7	69–31	W	O53.5
Very close	UNC @ UVA 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.25	31–28	L	U61.5
Very close	FSU @ MIA 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	45–3	W	U54
Very close	ISU @ WVU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	31–38	L	O49
Very close	ORE @ WASH 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	26–16	W	U48
Very close	ASU @ WASH 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6	35–30	L	O45.5
Very close	ORE @ STAN 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-8.5	24–31	L	U57.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TCU LLWWL	2-3	40%	1-0	2-3
ISU WLLWL	2-3	40%	2-1	0-2

Venue/role: TCU away, as favorite; ISU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TCU –UUUU	0-4	0%	3-2
ISU UUUOO	2-3	40%	2-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TCUlast 5	3-2 60%	2-3 40%	0-4 0%
ISUlast 5	2-3 40%	2-3 40%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TCU−3.1 →+8.5▲ 11.6#25

ISU−4.8 →−2.1▲ 2.7#74

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

TCU

Longer bar = better

ISU

#31

Offense

◀ TCU better

#115

#57

Defense

ISU better ▶

#41

+0.2 #50

Turnovers

Even

+0.2 #52

79 plays #6

Pace

◀ TCU faster

61 plays #122

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TCU has the ball

Even matchup

	TCU off	ISU def	Edge
Points / game	34.8 #35	23.2 #54	Even
Yards / play	6.20 #49	4.92 #30	Even
PPA / play	+0.28 #20	+0.03 #45	TCU
Success rate	49% #19	38% #34	Even

When ISU has the ball

Advantage: TCU defense

	ISU off	TCU def	Edge
Points / game	20.8 #113	21.0 #44	TCU
Yards / play	5.23 #101	5.21 #45	TCU
PPA / play	+0.02 #114	+0.08 #60	TCU
Success rate	34% #133	42% #77	TCU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

TCU scoring against the ISU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TCU scored	7.0 #49	11.6 #22	18.6 #31	7.2 #55	9.0 #23	16.2 #37
ISU allowed	6.2 #92	8.6 #94	14.8 #90	4.6 #48	3.8 #23	8.4 #29

ISU scoring against the TCU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ISU scored	6.2 #61	7.0 #100	13.2 #84	2.8 #126	4.8 #104	7.6 #123
TCU allowed	4.0 #45	7.4 #69	11.4 #58	4.8 #51	4.8 #45	9.6 #39

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.