Iowa State @ Cincinnati: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Sat, Oct 14, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Cincinnati · Conference game

Weather at kickoff61°F12 mphgusts 25DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Iowa State

3-3 · Power #35

▲ winner

Final

Cincinnati

2-3 · Power #76

final

Closing spread

CIN -3.5

✓ ISU W

Total

41.5

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

ISU 19–24 CIN

✗ CIN (62%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseCIN -3.5

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseCIN -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close41.5

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 45% (40 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseCIN -3.5

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CIN as a 3.5-point home favorite against ISU, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: ISU won 30–10 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 41.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.9 against an average line of 3.5; 42.9 points a game (usually 54.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BAY vs KSU 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	32–31	L	O44.5
Very close	SC vs MIZ 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	10–23	L	U45.25
Very close	PUR vs IOWA 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	3–24	L	U39.25
Very close	CSU vs SJSU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	32–14	W	O44.5
Very close	LOU vs NCST 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-4	25–10	W	U43
Very close	VT vs SYR 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	36–41	L	O45.5
Very close	STAN vs WASH 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	13–20	L	U46
Very close	PUR vs MINN 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	13–20	L	U46
Close	SJSU vs WYO 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & total	-3	27–21	W	O40.5
Close	AFA vs SDSU 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & spread	-3	14–20	L	U39

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ISU LLWLW	3-3	50%	0-2	1-2
CIN WWLLL	2-3	40%	1-2	1-1

Venue/role: ISU away, as underdog; CIN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ISU UUOO–	2-3	40%	3-3
CIN OOOUO	4-1	80%	2-3

Stayed under: it needed 9 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 60% of games with totals 37.5–45.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ISUlast 6	3-3 50%	3-3 50%	2-3 40%
CINlast 5	2-3 40%	2-3 40%	4-1 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ISU−4.8 →0.0▲ 4.8#63

CIN+1.0 →+3.9▲ 2.9#41

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

ISU

Longer bar = better

CIN

#107

Offense

CIN better ▶

#73

#30

Defense

◀ ISU better

#66

+1.0 #15

Turnovers

◀ ISU better

−0.5 #107

62 plays #119

Pace

CIN faster ▶

76 plays #8

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ISU has the ball

Advantage: CIN defense

	ISU off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #103	25.0 #67	CIN
Yards / play	5.34 #95	5.65 #78	Even
PPA / play	+0.07 #98	+0.15 #96	Even
Success rate	35% #131	36% #21	CIN

When CIN has the ball

Advantage: ISU defense

	CIN off	ISU def	Edge
Points / game	26.7 #85	20.0 #36	ISU
Yards / play	5.84 #61	4.81 #23	ISU
PPA / play	+0.13 #72	−0.01 #30	ISU
Success rate	42% #75	37% #30	ISU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ISU scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ISU scored	6.3 #55	6.3 #108	12.7 #91	4.7 #100	4.5 #109	9.2 #116
CIN allowed	5.6 #81	4.8 #25	10.4 #48	6.2 #81	6.0 #60	12.2 #70

CIN scoring against the ISU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	8.8 #26	8.8 #67	17.6 #40	6.6 #66	5.8 #91	12.4 #88
ISU allowed	5.2 #72	8.3 #88	13.5 #82	3.8 #32	4.3 #29	8.2 #20

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.