Michigan State @ Rutgers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2023)

Sat, Oct 14, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Rutgers · Conference game

Weather at kickoff53°F3 mphgusts 9Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Michigan State

2-3 · Power #98

final

Final

Rutgers

4-2 · Power #51

▲ winner

Closing spread

RUTG -3.5

✓ MSU W

Total

38.5

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

MSU 18–23 RUTG

✓ RUTG (63%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseRUTG -3.5

Total38.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseRUTG -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close38.5

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 45% (40 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

Opennot available

CloseRUTG -3.5

Total38.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like RUTG as a 3.5-point home favorite against MSU, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: RUTG won 27–24; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 38.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.8 against an average line of 3.7; 39 points a game (usually 54.6). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ARMY vs GASO 2020 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	28–27	L	O38.5
Close	ISU vs OKST 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & total	-3.5	34–27	W	O36
Close	MRSH vs VT 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-5.5	24–17	W	U41.5
Close	SC vs MIZ 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	10–23	L	U45.25
Close	UK vs SC 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-4.5	14–24	L	U44.5
Close	IOWA vs PUR 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar total & spread	-2.5	20–14	W	U38.5
Close	ILL vs IOWA 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	9–6	L	U36.5
Close	AFA vs SDSU 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar total & spread	-3	14–20	L	U39
Close	WVU vs TCU 2020 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & season form	-3	24–6	W	U44.5
Close	IOWA vs MINN 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & total	-4	27–22	W	O37

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MSU WWLLP	2-2-1	50%	0-0-1	0-2-1
RUTG WWPWW	5-0-1	100%	4-0	4-0

Venue/role: MSU away, as underdog; RUTG home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MSU –OUUO	2-2	50%	2-3
RUTG UOUO–	2-3	40%	4-2

Went over in Q4. Of 13 earlier overs in games with totals 34.5–42.5, 54% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MSUlast 5	2-3 40%	2-2-1 50%	2-2 50%
RUTGlast 6	4-2 67%	5-0-1 100%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MSU+7.2 →−2.8▼ 10.0#81

RUTG+1.6 →+2.8▲ 1.2#44

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

MSU

Longer bar = better

RUTG

#105

Offense

RUTG better ▶

#81

#52

Defense

RUTG better ▶

#36

−1.2 #133

Turnovers

RUTG better ▶

+0.7 #29

68 plays #62

Pace

◀ MSU faster

62 plays #113

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MSU has the ball

Advantage: RUTG defense

	MSU off	RUTG def	Edge
Points / game	21.6 #113	14.7 #13	RUTG
Yards / play	5.49 #88	4.47 #14	RUTG
PPA / play	−0.07 #131	−0.01 #29	RUTG
Success rate	40% #88	43% #86	Even

When RUTG has the ball

Advantage: MSU defense

	RUTG off	MSU def	Edge
Points / game	27.8 #82	23.8 #61	MSU
Yards / play	5.38 #96	5.37 #57	MSU
PPA / play	+0.16 #56	+0.03 #44	Even
Success rate	40% #91	38% #45	MSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

MSU scoring against the RUTG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSU scored	2.0 #131	5.8 #113	7.8 #129	8.2 #37	5.6 #94	13.8 #71
RUTG allowed	1.7 #9	4.5 #18	6.2 #8	2.8 #18	5.7 #54	8.5 #22

RUTG scoring against the MSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
RUTG scored	6.3 #55	7.3 #88	13.7 #79	4.5 #103	9.7 #19	14.2 #61
MSU allowed	4.8 #65	9.8 #103	14.6 #89	1.8 #8	7.4 #86	9.2 #32

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.