Michigan @ Michigan State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2023)

Sat, Oct 21, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Michigan State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff46°F6 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Michigan

7-0 · Power #3

▲ winner

Final

Michigan State

2-4 · Power #98

final

Closing spread

MICH -25.5

✓ MICH W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

MICH 37–12 MSU

✓ MICH (96%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMICH -25.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMICH -25.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close46.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMICH -25.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MICH as a 25.5-point road favorite at MSU, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: MICH won 49–0; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 49 points went over 46.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 56%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 24 against an average line of 24.5; 47.8 points a game (usually 56.4). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MICH @ RUTG 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-26.5	52–17	W	O45
Very close	PSU @ NU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & situation	-27	41–13	W	O46
Close	MIA @ TEM 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar total & season form	-23.5	41–7	W	O46.5
Close	FSU @ BC 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & rest	-25.25	31–29	L	O47.75
Close	CIN @ NAVY 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-28.5	27–20	L	U49.25
Close	UGA @ UK 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-22.5	16–6	L	U47.5
Loose	MICH @ IU 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation & rest	-23.5	31–10	L	U57.5
Loose	DUKE @ CONN 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & total	-22	41–7	W	O45
Loose	CLEM @ BC 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & situation	-21	31–3	W	U48.75
Loose	UGA @ SC 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar spread & rest	-25.5	48–7	W	U56

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MICH LPWWW	3-3-1	50%	2-0	3-3-1
MSU WLLPW	3-2-1	60%	2-2	1-2-1

Venue/role: MICH away, as favorite; MSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MICH UUO–O	2-4	33%	7-0
MSU OUUOO	3-2	60%	2-4

Went over in Q4. Of 79 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–50.5, 30% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MICHlast 7	7-0 100%	3-3-1 50%	2-4 33%
MSUlast 6	2-4 33%	3-2-1 60%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

MICH 75–38 MSU (5 tied) MICH leads · 118 games since 1898 · MICH has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MICH+8.4 →+20.8▲ 12.4#2

MSU+7.2 →−2.4▼ 9.6#78

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

MICH

Longer bar = better

MSU

Offense

◀ MICH better

#108

Defense

◀ MICH better

#51

+1.0 #12

Turnovers

◀ MICH better

−1.0 #130

60 plays #122

Pace

MSU faster ▶

68 plays #64

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MICH has the ball

Advantage: MICH offense

	MICH off	MSU def	Edge
Points / game	39.4 #10	24.3 #62	MICH
Yards / play	6.86 #17	5.23 #46	MICH
PPA / play	+0.44 #4	+0.05 #48	MICH
Success rate	56% #2	39% #47	MICH

When MSU has the ball

Advantage: MICH defense

	MSU off	MICH def	Edge
Points / game	22.0 #109	6.7 #1	MICH
Yards / play	5.14 #105	4.34 #8	MICH
PPA / play	−0.09 #134	−0.20 #1	MICH
Success rate	41% #82	28% #1	MICH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

MICH scoring against the MSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MICH scored	7.4 #38	13.3 #7	20.7 #9	13.3 #1	5.4 #96	18.7 #9
MSU allowed	4.5 #58	8.7 #93	13.2 #82	1.5 #5	9.7 #119	11.2 #55

MSU scoring against the MICH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSU scored	2.8 #123	6.5 #105	9.3 #120	8.0 #34	4.7 #111	12.7 #77
MICH allowed	2.4 #15	1.9 #1	4.3 #1	0.0 #1	2.4 #3	2.4 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.