Purdue @ Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sat, Nov 4, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Michigan · Conference game

Weather at kickoff46°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Purdue

2-6 · Power #66

final

Final

Michigan

8-0 · Power #3

▲ winner

Closing spread

MICH -31

✓ PUR W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

PUR 12–43 MICH

✓ MICH (99%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMICH -31

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMICH -31

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close53.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMICH -31

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MICH as a 31-point home favorite against PUR, the favorite won 10, covered 7, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: MICH won 41–13; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 54 points went over 53.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 97%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 55%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 33.2 against an average line of 30.2; 56.2 points a game (usually 56.7). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MICH vs NEB 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-30.5	34–3	W	U49.5
Close	CIN vs TEM 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar total & spread	-30	52–3	W	O52.5
Loose	BYU vs WKU 2020 · Week 9 · loose · similar spread & total	-30.5	41–10	W	U52.5
Loose	OSU vs IOWA 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar spread & situation	-29.75	54–10	W	O50
Loose	CLEM vs BC 2020 · Week 9 · loose · similar total & situation	-26.5	34–28	L	O56
Loose	UGA vs AUB 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation	-27.5	42–10	W	O49.5
Loose	MICH vs IU 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar season form	-33.5	52–7	W	O45.5
Loose	ND vs CMU 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar season form & total	-34.75	41–17	L	O51.25
Loose	ALA vs UK 2020 · Week 12 · loose · similar spread & situation	-31.5	63–3	W	O57.5
Loose	AUB vs GAST 2021 · Week 4 · loose	-27.5	34–24	L	O57.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PUR LWLLL	2-6	25%	1-2	0-4
MICH PWWWW	4-3-1	57%	1-3-1	4-3-1

Venue/role: PUR away, as underdog; MICH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PUR OO–UO	3-3	50%	2-6
MICH UO–OO	3-4	43%	8-0

Went over in Q4. Of 120 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PURlast 8	2-6 25%	2-6 25%	3-3 50%
MICHlast 8	8-0 100%	4-3-1 57%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PUR−4.2 →−1.4▲ 2.8#74

MICH+8.4 →+22.6▲ 14.2#1

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

PUR

Longer bar = better

MICH

#101

Offense

MICH better ▶

#79

Defense

MICH better ▶

0.0 #68

Turnovers

MICH better ▶

+1.1 #7

71 plays #31

Pace

◀ PUR faster

61 plays #122

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PUR has the ball

Advantage: MICH defense

	PUR off	MICH def	Edge
Points / game	21.9 #107	5.9 #1	MICH
Yards / play	4.89 #120	4.18 #4	MICH
PPA / play	0.00 #118	−0.22 #1	MICH
Success rate	43% #60	27% #1	MICH

When MICH has the ball

Advantage: MICH offense

	MICH off	PUR def	Edge
Points / game	40.6 #6	30.0 #105	MICH
Yards / play	6.87 #13	5.67 #78	MICH
PPA / play	+0.45 #3	+0.11 #76	MICH
Success rate	57% #1	41% #55	MICH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

PUR scoring against the MICH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PUR scored	2.9 #125	6.0 #105	8.9 #120	6.1 #69	6.9 #66	13.0 #69
MICH allowed	2.1 #6	1.6 #1	3.8 #1	0.0 #1	2.1 #2	2.1 #1

MICH scoring against the PUR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MICH scored	8.3 #24	13.4 #6	21.6 #8	13.4 #1	5.6 #96	19.0 #8
PUR allowed	6.4 #95	10.3 #112	16.6 #113	4.8 #48	8.6 #106	13.4 #86

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.