Michigan @ Penn State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sat, Nov 11, 2023, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Penn State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff49°F7 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Michigan

9-0 · Power #3

▲ winner

Final

Penn State

8-1 · Power #5

final

Closing spread

MICH -4.5

✓ MICH W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 39 pts

Model before kickoff

MICH 27–23 PSU

✓ MICH (61%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMICH -4.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMICH -4.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close44.5

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–6.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 47% (83 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMICH -4.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MICH as a 4.5-point road favorite at PSU, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: MICH won 24–15; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 39 points stayed under 44.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.9 against an average line of 4.3; 46.7 points a game (usually 53.9). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CLEM @ ND 2020 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5	40–47	L	O50.5
Close	MINN @ ILL 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-4.5	14–26	L	P40
Close	ORE @ UTAH 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-6.5	35–6	W	U47.5
Close	ND @ DUKE 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	21–14	W	U52.5
Close	ALA @ TA&M 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	26–20	W	O45.5
Close	MINN @ MSU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	34–7	W	U50
Close	ND @ CLEM 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar total & rest	-3	23–31	L	O44.5
Loose	MICH @ NEB 2021 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	32–29	W	O50
Loose	WISC @ NW 2020 · Week 12 · loose · similar situation & rest	-7.5	7–17	L	U43.5
Loose	MICH @ PSU 2021 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	21–17	W	U48

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MICH WWWWL	4-4-1	50%	3-0	4-4-1
PSU WWLLW	7-2	78%	4-1	0-1

Venue/role: MICH away, as favorite; PSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MICH O–OOO	4-4	50%	9-0
PSU OOUOO	5-3	63%	8-1

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 52% of games with totals 40.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MICHlast 9	9-0 100%	4-4-1 50%	4-4 50%
PSUlast 9	8-1 89%	7-2 78%	5-3 63%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MICH+8.4 →+22.6▲ 14.2#1

PSU+6.6 →+19.1▲ 12.5#4

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

MICH

Longer bar = better

PSU

Offense

◀ MICH better

#41

Defense

Even

+1.0 #8

Turnovers

Even

+1.8 #2

62 plays #115

Pace

PSU faster ▶

76 plays #3

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MICH has the ball

Even matchup

	MICH off	PSU def	Edge
Points / game	40.7 #5	11.9 #3	Even
Yards / play	6.79 #14	4.00 #1	Even
PPA / play	+0.41 #3	−0.10 #2	Even
Success rate	55% #3	32% #3	Even

When PSU has the ball

Advantage: MICH defense

	PSU off	MICH def	Edge
Points / game	40.2 #6	6.7 #1	Even
Yards / play	5.21 #98	4.24 #6	MICH
PPA / play	+0.21 #37	−0.21 #1	MICH
Success rate	48% #21	27% #1	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

MICH scoring against the PSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MICH scored	9.2 #14	12.2 #12	21.4 #8	12.7 #1	6.6 #73	19.2 #7
PSU allowed	2.2 #8	4.7 #17	6.9 #6	0.0 #1	5.0 #35	5.0 #3

PSU scoring against the MICH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PSU scored	7.1 #45	10.3 #23	17.4 #31	10.8 #5	12.0 #1	22.8 #1
MICH allowed	1.9 #4	2.1 #1	4.0 #1	0.0 #1	2.7 #2	2.7 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.