Alabama @ Kentucky: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sat, Nov 11, 2023, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Kentucky · Conference game

Weather at kickoff51°F5 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Alabama

8-1 · Power #7

▲ winner

Final

Kentucky

6-3 · Power #44

final

Closing spread

ALA -11.5

✓ ALA W

Total

▲ Over · 70 pts

Model before kickoff

ALA 29–18 UK

✓ ALA (79%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseALA -11.5

Total47

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseALA -11.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close47

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseALA -11.5

Total47

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ALA as an 11.5-point road favorite at UK, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: ALA won 49–21; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 70 points went over 47, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 79%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.4 against an average line of 11.9; 51.6 points a game (usually 55.7). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LSU @ TA&M 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-10	23–38	L	O47.5
Very close	ALA @ MSST 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & rest	-14.5	40–17	W	O46.5
Very close	ND @ PITT 2020 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-10	45–3	W	O43.5
Very close	ND @ BC 2020 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-13	45–31	W	O51.5
Very close	TA&M @ TENN 2020 · Week 16 · very close · similar situation & rest	-13.5	34–13	W	U49.5
Very close	OKST @ KSU 2020 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & total	-14	20–18	L	U48.5
Very close	CLEM @ NCSU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-10	17–24	L	U44.5
Very close	CLEM @ NCST 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & rest	-10.5	21–27	L	O47.5
Very close	OSU @ WIS 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-14.5	24–10	L	U48
Very close	PSU @ MD 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-8.5	51–15	W	O50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ALA WWLWW	6-3	67%	2-1	6-3
UK WLLLW	5-4	56%	3-3	0-2

Venue/role: ALA away, as favorite; UK home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ALA O–OOO	5-2	71%	8-1
UK O–OOU	5-3	63%	6-3

Went over in Q3. Of 113 earlier overs in games with totals 43–51, 28% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ALAlast 9	8-1 89%	6-3 67%	5-2 71%
UKlast 9	6-3 67%	5-4 56%	5-3 63%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ALA+13.1 →+17.2▲ 4.1#8

UK+6.1 →+3.7▼ 2.4#45

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

ALA

Longer bar = better

#45

Offense

Even

#56

#20

Defense

◀ ALA better

#47

+0.3 #48

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #42

63 plays #108

Pace

◀ ALA faster

56 plays #134

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ALA has the ball

Even matchup

	ALA off	UK def	Edge
Points / game	31.9 #39	22.3 #43	Even
Yards / play	6.07 #50	5.21 #42	Even
PPA / play	+0.23 #31	+0.04 #38	Even
Success rate	43% #59	42% #66	Even

When UK has the ball

Advantage: ALA defense

	UK off	ALA def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #53	17.8 #20	ALA
Yards / play	6.36 #34	4.93 #26	Even
PPA / play	+0.17 #53	+0.01 #27	ALA
Success rate	41% #84	34% #7	ALA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ALA scoring against the UK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ALA scored	6.1 #59	8.7 #57	14.8 #61	10.3 #6	6.8 #68	17.1 #17
UK allowed	4.2 #43	7.8 #85	12.0 #57	4.3 #37	6.0 #60	10.3 #41

UK scoring against the ALA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UK scored	7.6 #38	9.1 #47	16.7 #37	8.0 #29	5.3 #99	13.3 #60
ALA allowed	4.7 #51	6.1 #39	10.8 #40	3.4 #20	3.6 #12	7.0 #10

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.