Vanderbilt @ South Carolina: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sat, Nov 11, 2023, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at South Carolina · Conference game

Weather at kickoff52°F11 mphgusts 21Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Vanderbilt

2-8 · Power #111

final

Final

South Carolina

3-6 · Power #47

▲ winner

Closing spread

SC -13.5

✓ SC W

Total

▼ Under · 53 pts

Model before kickoff

VAN 20–34 SC

✓ SC (84%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSC -13.5

Total54

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseSC -13.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close54

Line context

Home favorites of 11.5–15.5 since 2023: won 87%, covered 47% (46 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseSC -13.5

Total54

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SC as a 13.5-point home favorite against VAN, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: SC won 47–6; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 53 points stayed under 54, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9 against an average line of 13.4; 63.8 points a game (usually 55.8). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WSU vs STAN 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-13.5	7–10	L	U58
Very close	WSU vs ARIZ 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & total	-14.75	44–18	W	O52.5
Very close	UCF vs TULN 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-13.5	14–10	L	U57
Very close	VT vs DUKE 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-13	48–17	W	O50.5
Very close	TLSA vs USF 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-13.75	48–42	L	O57.5
Very close	WMU vs BALL 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-12.5	20–45	L	O57.5
Very close	HOU vs USF 2020 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-14.5	56–21	W	O58.5
Very close	TEM vs USF 2020 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-14	39–37	L	O52.75
Very close	UTAH vs WSU 2020 · Week 16 · very close · similar rest & total	-11.5	45–28	W	O55
Very close	COLO vs STAN 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-13	43–46	L	O59

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
VAN LLWLL	1-9	10%	0-4	1-6
SC LLLWL	4-5	44%	2-2	2-2

Venue/role: VAN away, as underdog; SC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
VAN O–OUU	7-2	78%	2-8
SC OOUUO	5-4	56%	3-6

Stayed under: it needed 28 in the 4th quarter and got 26. 54% of games with totals 50–58 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
VAN	2-8 20%	1-9 10%	7-2 78%
SClast 9	3-6 33%	4-5 44%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

VAN+2.1 →−8.9▼ 11.0#108

SC−1.6 →+2.0▲ 3.6#54

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

VAN

Longer bar = better

#109

Offense

SC better ▶

#67

#117

Defense

SC better ▶

#99

−0.4 #101

Turnovers

SC better ▶

+0.1 #62

61 plays #126

Pace

SC faster ▶

67 plays #67

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When VAN has the ball

Even matchup

	VAN off	SC def	Edge
Points / game	24.4 #88	31.1 #110	VAN
Yards / play	5.42 #86	6.02 #106	Even
PPA / play	−0.06 #132	+0.15 #94	SC
Success rate	36% #130	43% #84	SC

When SC has the ball

Advantage: SC offense

	SC off	VAN def	Edge
Points / game	26.8 #75	33.9 #122	SC
Yards / play	5.69 #69	6.27 #125	SC
PPA / play	+0.15 #60	+0.23 #127	SC
Success rate	42% #64	44% #95	SC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

VAN scoring against the SC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VAN scored	5.0 #87	5.2 #122	10.2 #112	4.6 #106	9.6 #16	14.2 #50
SC allowed	6.9 #104	10.7 #120	17.6 #117	7.2 #103	6.3 #66	13.6 #84

SC scoring against the VAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SC scored	8.1 #25	7.1 #84	15.2 #56	5.1 #92	6.4 #77	11.6 #93
VAN allowed	7.8 #115	11.2 #127	19.0 #125	5.8 #68	9.1 #108	14.9 #104

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.