Stanford @ Washington State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sat, Nov 4, 2023, 9:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Washington State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff52°F9 mphgusts 15Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Stanford

2-6 · Power #106

▲ winner

Final

Washington State

4-4 · Power #46

final

Closing spread

WSU -14

✓ STAN W

Total

▼ Under · 17 pts

Model before kickoff

STAN 22–36 WSU

✗ WSU (85%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWSU -14

Total58

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseWSU -14

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close58

Line context

Home favorites of 12–16 since 2023: won 91%, covered 46% (47 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWSU -14

Total58

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WSU as a 14-point home favorite against STAN, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: STAN won 10–7 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 17 points stayed under 58, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 82%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.8 against an average line of 13.5; 69.4 points a game (usually 55.6). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	HOU vs USF 2020 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-14.5	56–21	W	O58.5
Very close	TLSA vs USF 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-13.75	48–42	L	O57.5
Very close	UCF vs TULN 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-13.5	14–10	L	U57
Very close	GAST vs ULM 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-13.5	28–31	L	U59.5
Very close	BSU vs CSU 2020 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-14	52–21	W	O62.5
Very close	WMU vs BALL 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-12.5	20–45	L	O57.5
Very close	COLO vs STAN 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & spread	-13	43–46	L	O59
Very close	SMU vs NAVY 2020 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-13.25	51–37	W	O58.5
Very close	PUR vs RUTG 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-12.5	30–37	L	O61
Very close	WSU vs ARIZ 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-14.75	44–18	W	O52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
STAN WLWLW	4-4	50%	2-1	3-3
WSU WLLWL	4-4	50%	2-2	1-3

Venue/role: STAN away, as underdog; WSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
STAN UUOUO	3-5	38%	2-6
WSU O–UOO	5-2	71%	4-4

Stayed under: it needed 45 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 46% of games with totals 54–62 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
STANlast 8	2-6 25%	4-4 50%	3-5 38%
WSUlast 8	4-4 50%	4-4 50%	5-2 71%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

STAN+2.6 →−8.0▼ 10.6#105

WSU+5.5 →+2.1▼ 3.4#50

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

STAN

Longer bar = better

WSU

#84

Offense

WSU better ▶

#44

#134

Defense

WSU better ▶

#104

−0.3 #92

Turnovers

◀ STAN better

−0.5 #113

72 plays #28

Pace

◀ STAN faster

69 plays #50

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When STAN has the ball

Even matchup

	STAN off	WSU def	Edge
Points / game	22.8 #100	30.9 #108	Even
Yards / play	5.30 #91	6.30 #126	STAN
PPA / play	+0.12 #73	+0.15 #94	STAN
Success rate	42% #73	43% #87	Even

When WSU has the ball

Advantage: WSU offense

	WSU off	STAN def	Edge
Points / game	32.1 #40	37.5 #134	WSU
Yards / play	6.33 #35	6.60 #132	WSU
PPA / play	+0.13 #68	+0.31 #135	WSU
Success rate	46% #34	51% #135	WSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

STAN scoring against the WSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
STAN scored	2.5 #128	5.9 #111	8.4 #127	6.9 #56	6.3 #80	13.1 #66
WSU allowed	4.1 #38	8.8 #93	12.9 #70	6.8 #92	11.3 #132	18.0 #129

WSU scoring against the STAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSU scored	8.6 #19	11.6 #18	20.3 #13	5.8 #77	6.1 #86	11.9 #89
STAN allowed	7.4 #110	13.6 #132	21.0 #133	6.5 #87	9.1 #113	15.6 #108

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.