California @ Oregon: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sat, Nov 4, 2023, 5:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Oregon · Conference game

Weather at kickoff61°F7 mphgusts 24Wet0.1 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

California

3-5 · Power #57

final

Final

Oregon

7-1 · Power #2

▲ winner

Closing spread

ORE -26.5

✓ ORE W

Total

▲ Over · 82 pts

Model before kickoff

CAL 18–44 ORE

✓ ORE (97%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseORE -26.5

Total61

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseORE -26.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close61

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseORE -26.5

Total61

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ORE as a 26.5-point home favorite against CAL, the favorite won 10, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: ORE won 63–19; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 82 points went over 61, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 93%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 55%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 17.7 against an average line of 25.6; 53.5 points a game (usually 56.2). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	USC vs ASU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & rest	-24.5	42–25	L	O61
Close	OU vs BAY 2020 · Week 14 · close · similar total & situation	-23	27–14	L	U61
Close	PSU vs CMU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar total & rest	-28	33–14	L	U61.5
Close	CLEM vs BC 2020 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & rest	-26.5	34–28	L	O56
Close	CLEM vs PITT 2020 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-24	52–17	W	O58.5
Close	CIN vs USF 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-27	28–24	L	U58.5
Close	WASH vs ASU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar total & spread	-28	15–7	L	U60
Close	ALA vs AUB 2020 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-24.5	42–13	W	U65
Close	CIN vs TLSA 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-22.5	28–20	L	U56
Close	CIN vs ECU 2020 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & spread	-27.5	55–17	W	O56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CAL LLLLW	3-5	38%	1-2	3-3
ORE WWWLW	7-1	88%	3-1	6-1

Venue/role: CAL away, as underdog; ORE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CAL OU–OO	3-3	50%	3-5
ORE UUOOU	3-5	38%	7-1

Went over in Q4. Of 55 earlier overs in games with totals 57–65, 20% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CALlast 8	3-5 38%	3-5 38%	3-3 50%
ORElast 8	7-1 88%	7-1 88%	3-5 38%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CAL+15.6 →+1.7▼ 13.9#55

ORE+8.3 →+20.5▲ 12.2#3

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

CAL

Longer bar = better

ORE

#66

Offense

ORE better ▶

#115

Defense

ORE better ▶

#18

−0.1 #80

Turnovers

ORE better ▶

+0.9 #16

75 plays #9

Pace

◀ CAL faster

68 plays #61

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CAL has the ball

Advantage: ORE defense

	CAL off	ORE def	Edge
Points / game	32.3 #38	15.6 #10	ORE
Yards / play	5.63 #72	4.71 #16	ORE
PPA / play	+0.09 #85	−0.02 #16	ORE
Success rate	42% #67	37% #28	ORE

When ORE has the ball

Advantage: ORE offense

	ORE off	CAL def	Edge
Points / game	45.5 #3	33.5 #121	ORE
Yards / play	7.83 #3	6.02 #106	ORE
PPA / play	+0.46 #2	+0.20 #114	ORE
Success rate	56% #2	46% #120	ORE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

CAL scoring against the ORE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAL scored	6.4 #60	10.0 #35	16.4 #42	9.1 #16	6.8 #69	15.9 #33
ORE allowed	4.6 #52	4.1 #12	8.8 #20	3.0 #12	3.9 #13	6.9 #10

ORE scoring against the CAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORE scored	12.4 #4	13.5 #6	25.9 #1	11.9 #2	7.8 #42	19.6 #5
CAL allowed	9.0 #126	9.6 #105	18.6 #124	6.1 #80	8.8 #108	14.9 #101

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.