Washington @ USC: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sat, Nov 4, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at USC · Conference game

Weather at kickoff75°F8 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Washington

8-0 · Power #13

▲ winner

Final

USC

7-2 · Power #23

final

Closing spread

WASH -3

✓ WASH W

Total

75.5

▲ Over · 94 pts

Model before kickoff

WASH 37–35 USC

✓ WASH (57%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWASH -3

Total75.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseWASH -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close75.5

Line context

Road favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 60%, covered 48% (42 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWASH -3

Total75.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WASH as a 3-point road favorite at USC, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: WASH won 52–42; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 94 points went over 75.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.1 against an average line of 3.3; 74.7 points a game (usually 54). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	USC @ UCLA 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	48–45	W	O77.5
Close	UCF @ MEM 2020 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total	-3	49–50	L	O76.75
Close	ND @ UNC 2020 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & spread	-4.5	31–17	W	U69.5
Close	WKU @ UTSA 2021 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & total	-3.25	41–49	L	O74.5
Close	UCF @ HOU 2020 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & rest	-3	44–21	W	U81.5
Close	MISS @ TENN 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-1	31–26	W	U82.25
Close	OU @ TCU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-5	24–55	L	O69.5
Loose	SMU @ MEM 2021 · Week 10 · loose · similar spread & situation	-3.5	25–28	L	U72
Loose	LSU @ MISS 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar spread & rest	-3	49–55	L	O67
Loose	TEX @ TCU 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & spread	-4	32–27	W	U65.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WASH WLLLL	3-4-1	43%	1-2	3-4-1
USC LLLLL	2-7	22%	2-3	0-1

Venue/role: WASH away, as favorite; USC home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WASH OUOUO	3-4	43%	8-0
USC O–OOO	6-1	86%	7-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WASHlast 8	8-0 100%	3-4-1 43%	3-4 43%
USClast 9	7-2 78%	2-7 22%	6-1 86%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WASH+9.9 →+14.4▲ 4.5#14

USC+9.1 →+11.2▲ 2.1#19

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

WASH

Longer bar = better

USC

Offense

Even

#49

Defense

◀ WASH better

#95

−0.4 #100

Turnovers

USC better ▶

+0.2 #52

63 plays #108

Pace

USC faster ▶

65 plays #93

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WASH has the ball

Advantage: WASH offense

	WASH off	USC def	Edge
Points / game	40.4 #9	32.6 #113	WASH
Yards / play	7.97 #2	5.90 #95	WASH
PPA / play	+0.36 #4	+0.17 #101	WASH
Success rate	55% #4	42% #71	WASH

When USC has the ball

Advantage: USC offense

	USC off	WASH def	Edge
Points / game	45.9 #2	20.6 #35	USC
Yards / play	7.46 #4	5.28 #47	USC
PPA / play	+0.34 #6	+0.03 #39	USC
Success rate	48% #17	42% #73	USC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

WASH scoring against the USC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WASH scored	10.9 #8	13.8 #5	24.6 #2	6.9 #56	8.9 #24	15.8 #33
USC allowed	6.6 #98	8.3 #89	14.9 #99	6.7 #89	9.6 #120	16.2 #114

USC scoring against the WASH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USC scored	12.3 #5	11.1 #22	23.4 #6	8.6 #22	12.2 #1	20.8 #3
WASH allowed	2.9 #18	6.5 #55	9.4 #25	5.3 #58	6.0 #59	11.3 #52

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.