Utah @ Washington: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sat, Nov 11, 2023, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Washington · Conference game

Weather at kickoff53°F20 mphgusts 33DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Utah

7-2 · Power #33

final

Final

Washington

9-0 · Power #13

▲ winner

Closing spread

WASH -9

✓ UTAH W

Total

▲ Over · 63 pts

Model before kickoff

UTAH 18–27 WASH

✓ WASH (74%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWASH -9

Total49

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseWASH -9

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close49

Line context

Home favorites of 7–11 since 2023: won 70%, covered 46% (73 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWASH -9

Total49

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WASH as a 9-point home favorite against UTAH, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: WASH won 35–28; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 63 points went over 49, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 17.5 against an average line of 8.8; 53.7 points a game (usually 54.5). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TCU vs ISU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-9.5	62–14	W	O45.75
Very close	ISU vs OKST 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7	24–21	L	U47
Very close	USC vs UTAH 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7	32–34	L	O52
Very close	LOU vs VT 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & spread	-9.75	34–3	W	U48.5
Close	TEX vs BAY 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & spread	-10	38–27	W	O55.25
Close	ISU vs WVU 2020 · Week 14 · close · similar total & rest	-6	42–6	W	P48
Close	TCU vs WVU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-12.5	21–24	L	U52
Close	MIAMI vs PITT 2020 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-12	31–19	P	O47
Close	CLEM vs LOU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-7	31–16	W	U52
Close	MICH vs PSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar total & situation	-7	41–17	W	O48.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTAH LWWLW	5-3-1	63%	1-1-1	1-2
WASH LLLLW	4-4-1	50%	2-2-1	4-4-1

Venue/role: UTAH away, as underdog; WASH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTAH UOOUO	3-5	38%	7-2
WASH UOUOO	4-4	50%	9-0

Went over in Q2. Of 124 earlier overs in games with totals 45–53, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTAHlast 9	7-2 78%	5-3-1 63%	3-5 38%
WASHlast 9	9-0 100%	4-4-1 50%	4-4 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UTAH+1.7 →+8.8▲ 7.1#25

WASH+9.9 →+15.1▲ 5.2#13

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

UTAH

Longer bar = better

WASH

#97

Offense

WASH better ▶

#12

Defense

◀ UTAH better

#70

+0.8 #17

Turnovers

◀ UTAH better

−0.3 #96

68 plays #53

Pace

◀ UTAH faster

64 plays #98

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UTAH has the ball

Advantage: WASH defense

	UTAH off	WASH def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #83	23.0 #46	WASH
Yards / play	5.15 #105	5.56 #70	WASH
PPA / play	+0.04 #103	+0.07 #54	WASH
Success rate	40% #95	44% #109	Even

When WASH has the ball

Even matchup

	WASH off	UTAH def	Edge
Points / game	41.7 #4	15.9 #9	Even
Yards / play	7.97 #2	4.87 #20	Even
PPA / play	+0.38 #4	−0.04 #12	Even
Success rate	56% #2	34% #6	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UTAH scoring against the WASH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTAH scored	5.8 #73	6.3 #99	12.1 #91	6.4 #61	6.4 #79	12.9 #71
WASH allowed	4.1 #38	7.3 #71	11.4 #47	6.2 #79	5.3 #43	11.6 #56

WASH scoring against the UTAH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WASH scored	10.4 #7	15.3 #1	25.8 #2	6.9 #50	9.0 #22	15.9 #31
UTAH allowed	5.3 #68	2.7 #2	8.0 #12	3.8 #23	4.1 #15	7.9 #15

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.