Washington @ Oregon State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sat, Nov 18, 2023, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Oregon State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff48°F1 mphgusts 9Wet0.1 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Washington

10-0 · Power #13

▲ winner

Final

Oregon State

8-2 · Power #20

final

Closing spread

ORST -1

✓ WASH W

Total

▼ Under · 42 pts

Model before kickoff

WASH 32–33 ORST

✗ ORST (52%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseORST -1

Total63

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseORST -1

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close63

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–3 since 2023: won 53%, covered 46% (72 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseORST -1

Total63

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ORST as a 1-point home favorite against WASH, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: WASH won 22–20 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 42 points stayed under 63, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 47%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 0 against an average line of 2; 66 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ORE vs UTAH 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-1	20–17	W	U61.5
Very close	MSST vs MISS 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2	21–31	L	U65
Very close	UTAH vs USC 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	43–42	L	O65
Very close	ND vs USC 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	48–20	W	O61
Very close	UCLA vs ORE 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1	31–34	L	O61.5
Very close	MD vs PUR 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3	29–31	L	O59.5
Very close	ORST vs ORE 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-1	38–34	W	O57
Close	OKST vs TEX 2020 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	34–41	L	O58.5
Close	WAKE vs NCST 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & rest	-1	45–42	W	O64.5
Close	TTU vs KSU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & rest	-1	21–38	L	O57.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WASH LLLWL	4-5-1	44%	2-2	—
ORST WWLLW	6-4	60%	4-1	6-4

Venue/role: WASH away, as underdog; ORST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WASH OUOOO	5-4	56%	10-0
ORST –OUUO	4-4	50%	8-2

Stayed under: it needed 25 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 42% of games with totals 59–67 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WASH	10-0 100%	4-5-1 44%	5-4 56%
ORST	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	4-4 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WASH+9.9 →+15.0▲ 5.1#13

ORST+11.2 →+12.6▲ 1.4#17

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

WASH

Longer bar = better

ORST

Offense

Even

#10

#74

Defense

ORST better ▶

#36

−0.2 #96

Turnovers

ORST better ▶

+1.0 #8

65 plays #89

Pace

Even

65 plays #92

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WASH has the ball

Advantage: WASH offense

	WASH off	ORST def	Edge
Points / game	41.0 #4	20.5 #34	WASH
Yards / play	7.75 #3	5.12 #29	WASH
PPA / play	+0.37 #4	−0.01 #15	Even
Success rate	54% #3	42% #64	WASH

When ORST has the ball

Advantage: ORST offense

	ORST off	WASH def	Edge
Points / game	37.9 #14	23.5 #51	ORST
Yards / play	6.98 #9	5.65 #75	ORST
PPA / play	+0.33 #7	+0.08 #56	ORST
Success rate	51% #8	45% #112	ORST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

WASH scoring against the ORST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WASH scored	10.4 #7	15.2 #1	25.6 #2	7.3 #43	8.1 #32	15.4 #33
ORST allowed	2.4 #10	6.0 #34	8.4 #15	4.1 #35	8.0 #98	12.1 #68

ORST scoring against the WASH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORST scored	8.6 #19	10.8 #25	19.4 #15	8.5 #22	10.0 #10	18.5 #10
WASH allowed	4.4 #40	8.7 #92	13.1 #72	5.6 #65	4.8 #28	10.4 #39

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.