California @ Stanford: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sat, Nov 18, 2023, 6:30 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Stanford · Conference game

Weather at kickoff61°F7 mphgusts 17Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

California

4-6 · Power #57

▲ winner

Final

Stanford

3-7 · Power #106

final

Closing spread

CAL -6.5

✓ CAL W

Total

▼ Under · 42 pts

Model before kickoff

CAL 32–25 STAN

✓ CAL (68%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCAL -6.5

Total53

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseCAL -6.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close53

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 57% (56 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCAL -6.5

Total53

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CAL as a 6.5-point road favorite at STAN, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: CAL won 27–15; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 42 points stayed under 53, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.8 against an average line of 5.8; 57.2 points a game (usually 54). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NEB @ RUTG 2020 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	28–21	W	U52
Very close	BYU @ STAN 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	35–26	W	O57.5
Very close	TLSA @ USF 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & situation	-7	32–31	L	O55.75
Very close	ORST @ STAN 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-4.5	28–27	L	O53.25
Very close	LT @ RICE 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & situation	-4	31–35	L	O52.5
Very close	ASU @ ARIZ 2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar situation & season form	-9	70–7	W	O56.5
Very close	M-OH @ OHIO 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-7	33–35	L	O54.5
Very close	GAST @ GASO 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-6	21–14	W	U55
Very close	WSU @ ASU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	27–38	L	O49
Very close	TLSA @ TULN 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	20–13	W	U55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CAL LLWLW	4-6	40%	1-3	1-2
STAN WLWWL	5-5	50%	2-3	4-4

Venue/role: CAL away, as favorite; STAN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CAL –OOOO	5-3	63%	4-6
STAN OUOUO	4-6	40%	3-7

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 55% of games with totals 49–57 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CAL	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-3 63%
STAN	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CAL 45–54 STAN (6 tied) STAN leads · 105 games since 1918 · STAN has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CAL+15.6 →+0.4▼ 15.2#61

STAN+2.6 →−8.1▼ 10.7#104

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

CAL

Longer bar = better

STAN

#72

Offense

◀ CAL better

#102

#119

Defense

◀ CAL better

#133

0.0 #72

Turnovers

◀ CAL better

−0.6 #119

72 plays #22

Pace

Even

71 plays #33

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CAL has the ball

Advantage: CAL offense

	CAL off	STAN def	Edge
Points / game	31.9 #38	36.9 #131	CAL
Yards / play	5.54 #80	6.56 #131	CAL
PPA / play	+0.08 #91	+0.30 #134	CAL
Success rate	41% #77	50% #135	CAL

When STAN has the ball

Even matchup

	STAN off	CAL def	Edge
Points / game	20.9 #112	37.0 #132	Even
Yards / play	5.06 #112	6.03 #107	Even
PPA / play	+0.08 #88	+0.18 #106	Even
Success rate	40% #95	47% #129	STAN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

CAL scoring against the STAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAL scored	7.5 #40	9.7 #39	17.2 #32	7.9 #30	6.8 #69	14.7 #44
STAN allowed	7.3 #104	13.6 #132	20.9 #132	7.3 #109	8.0 #97	15.3 #109

STAN scoring against the CAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
STAN scored	2.7 #127	5.0 #126	7.7 #131	6.9 #54	5.3 #105	12.2 #77
CAL allowed	9.3 #128	11.2 #129	20.5 #130	5.9 #75	10.6 #131	16.5 #117

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.