Toledo @ Bowling Green: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Tue, Nov 14, 2023, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Bowling Green · Conference game

Weather at kickoff41°F6 mphDryWeather watch ›

Toledo

9-1 · Power #58

▲ winner

Final

Bowling Green

6-4 · Power #80

final

Closing spread

TOL -9.5

✓ BGSU W

Total

▲ Over · 63 pts

Model before kickoff

TOL 29–20 BGSU

✓ TOL (74%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTOL -9.5

Total50

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTOL -9.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close50

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTOL -9.5

Total50

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TOL as a 9.5-point road favorite at BGSU, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: TOL won 32–31; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 63 points went over 50, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 73%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 21.8 against an average line of 8.9; 51.6 points a game (usually 54.8). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	APP @ TROY 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-10	45–7	W	O51.5
Very close	AFA @ UNLV 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & spread	-10	42–7	W	U50
Very close	JMU @ ODU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	37–3	W	U48
Very close	APP @ GASO 2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & situation	-9.5	34–26	L	O45
Very close	MEM @ CLT 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-10	44–38	L	O51.5
Very close	UTAH @ STAN 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-10.25	52–7	W	O51.75
Very close	USA @ ARST 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-9	31–3	W	U52
Very close	USA @ USM 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	27–20	L	O45
Very close	USA @ UL 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-8.5	20–17	L	U47.25
Very close	UL @ TROY 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & total	-6.5	35–21	W	O48

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TOL LLWWW	5-5	50%	2-2	4-5
BGSU LWWLW	7-3	70%	2-2	4-2

Venue/role: TOL away, as favorite; BGSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TOL –UUUO	4-4	50%	9-1
BGSU –UOOO	5-3	63%	6-4

Went over in Q4. Of 142 earlier overs in games with totals 46–54, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TOL	9-1 90%	5-5 50%	4-4 50%
BGSU	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	5-3 63%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

TOL 33–30 BGSU (1 tied) TOL leads · 64 games since 1962 · BGSU has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TOL+0.7 →+2.8▲ 2.1#46

BGSU−3.0 →−5.2▼ 2.2#91

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

TOL

Longer bar = better

BGSU

#19

Offense

◀ TOL better

#88

#23

Defense

◀ TOL better

#50

−0.1 #84

Turnovers

BGSU better ▶

+0.7 #18

67 plays #70

Pace

◀ TOL faster

59 plays #130

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TOL has the ball

Advantage: TOL offense

	TOL off	BGSU def	Edge
Points / game	35.9 #19	24.0 #54	TOL
Yards / play	6.60 #20	5.26 #45	TOL
PPA / play	+0.24 #20	+0.03 #32	Even
Success rate	48% #16	42% #68	TOL

When BGSU has the ball

Advantage: TOL defense

	BGSU off	TOL def	Edge
Points / game	25.1 #83	19.7 #27	TOL
Yards / play	5.38 #86	4.88 #20	TOL
PPA / play	+0.07 #93	−0.02 #14	TOL
Success rate	40% #90	38% #29	TOL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

TOL scoring against the BGSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TOL scored	10.1 #9	9.6 #41	19.7 #15	9.1 #14	7.1 #63	16.2 #25
BGSU allowed	7.9 #114	5.7 #30	13.6 #78	6.8 #95	3.6 #9	10.4 #35

BGSU scoring against the TOL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BGSU scored	4.8 #86	8.9 #50	13.7 #73	6.2 #63	5.2 #107	11.4 #93
TOL allowed	3.5 #24	5.3 #21	8.8 #21	5.9 #68	5.0 #36	10.9 #46

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.