Western Michigan @ Northern Illinois: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Tue, Nov 14, 2023, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Northern Illinois · Conference game

Weather at kickoff45°F8 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Western Michigan

4-6 · Power #120

final

Final

Northern Illinois

4-6 · Power #94

▲ winner

Closing spread

NIU -4.5

✓ NIU W

Total

▼ Under · 24 pts

Model before kickoff

WMU 26–31 NIU

✓ NIU (64%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNIU -4.5

Total57

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseNIU -4.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close57

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 63%, covered 44% (52 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNIU -4.5

Total57

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NIU as a 4.5-point home favorite against WMU, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: NIU won 24–0; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 24 points stayed under 57, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.7 against an average line of 5.3; 56.3 points a game (usually 53.8). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CMU vs NIU 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-6	38–39	L	O56
Very close	MEM vs TULN 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & total	-5.5	33–28	L	O58
Very close	SJSU vs USU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4.5	17–48	L	O58
Very close	BALL vs BUFF 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-6	20–3	W	U59.5
Very close	USM vs ARST 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4.5	20–19	L	U53
Very close	ARMY vs ULM 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-6.5	48–24	W	O55.5
Very close	M-OH vs BUFF 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & total	-7	45–18	W	O58
Very close	BALL vs EMU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & rest	-2.5	16–20	L	U57.5
Very close	WMU vs EMU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4.5	23–45	L	O55.5
Very close	TULN vs USF 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	45–14	W	U59.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WMU WLWWW	7-3	70%	4-2	3-3
NIU WWLLL	4-6	40%	1-4	1-5

Venue/role: WMU away, as underdog; NIU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WMU OOUOO	7-3	70%	4-6
NIU –UUOU	4-5	44%	4-6

Stayed under: it needed 37 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 48% of games with totals 53–61 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WMU	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%
NIU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WMU−3.0 →−9.3▼ 6.3#109

NIU−1.1 →−6.4▼ 5.3#98

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

WMU

Longer bar = better

NIU

#85

Offense

Even

#79

#102

Defense

NIU better ▶

#52

+0.5 #28

Turnovers

◀ WMU better

−0.3 #96

76 plays #6

Pace

◀ WMU faster

64 plays #105

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WMU has the ball

Advantage: NIU defense

	WMU off	NIU def	Edge
Points / game	27.4 #70	22.7 #47	NIU
Yards / play	5.19 #101	5.05 #30	NIU
PPA / play	+0.08 #89	+0.10 #68	NIU
Success rate	41% #78	42% #63	Even

When NIU has the ball

Advantage: NIU offense

	NIU off	WMU def	Edge
Points / game	24.2 #87	32.3 #116	NIU
Yards / play	5.62 #75	6.12 #112	NIU
PPA / play	+0.11 #74	+0.15 #98	NIU
Success rate	41% #79	43% #83	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

WMU scoring against the NIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WMU scored	5.9 #71	9.0 #48	14.9 #60	4.5 #103	8.0 #38	12.5 #77
NIU allowed	5.4 #66	5.4 #25	10.8 #38	6.1 #73	5.5 #45	11.6 #57

NIU scoring against the WMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NIU scored	3.4 #118	5.5 #117	8.9 #121	7.1 #49	7.6 #48	14.7 #43
WMU allowed	6.1 #88	9.0 #93	15.1 #96	9.6 #128	7.6 #93	17.2 #127

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.