Northern Illinois @ Kent State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Sat, Nov 25, 2023, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Kent State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff36°F4 mphgusts 12DryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Northern Illinois

5-6 · Power #94

▲ winner

Final

Kent State

1-10 · Power #133

final

Closing spread

NIU -20.5

✓ KENT W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 64 pts

Model before kickoff

NIU 34–15 KENT

✓ NIU (92%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNIU -20.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseNIU -20.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close45.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseNIU -20.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NIU as a 20.5-point road favorite at KENT, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: NIU won 37–27; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 64 points went over 45.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 89%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 20.6 against an average line of 19.6; 50.6 points a game (usually 56.3). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ARMY @ MASS 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & spread	-20	44–7	W	O45.5
Close	LIB @ MASS 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar total & season form	-22.5	42–24	L	O45.5
Close	BUFF @ MASS 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar total & team ratings	-17	34–7	W	U47.5
Close	GASO @ ULM 2020 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-19.5	35–30	L	O50.5
Close	TROY @ ULM 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar total & situation	-21.5	45–14	W	O46.75
Close	AFA @ HAW 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & total	-20.5	13–27	L	U47.5
Close	BOIS @ NEV 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-21	41–3	W	U47.5
Close	USU @ UNM 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & season form	-17	35–10	W	U48
Close	MTSU @ FIU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & season form	-19.5	33–28	L	O54.5
Close	UAB @ USM 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar total & season form	-17	34–0	W	U43.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NIU WLLLW	5-6	45%	3-2	2-5
KENT LLLLL	3-8	27%	1-3	2-8

Venue/role: NIU away, as favorite; KENT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NIU UUOUU	4-6	40%	5-6
KENT OUOOU	5-4	56%	1-10

Went over in Q4. Of 117 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–49.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NIU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	3-6 33%
KENT	1-9 10%	3-7 30%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NIU−1.1 →−5.4▼ 4.3#92

KENT−15.5 →−22.2▼ 6.7#133

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

NIU

Longer bar = better

KENT

#78

Offense

◀ NIU better

#133

#44

Defense

◀ NIU better

#117

−0.3 #100

Turnovers

Even

−0.2 #89

64 plays #100

Pace

◀ NIU faster

62 plays #116

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NIU has the ball

Advantage: NIU offense

	NIU off	KENT def	Edge
Points / game	24.2 #88	34.4 #122	NIU
Yards / play	5.63 #77	5.94 #99	NIU
PPA / play	+0.12 #73	+0.27 #132	NIU
Success rate	42% #75	45% #114	NIU

When KENT has the ball

Advantage: NIU defense

	KENT off	NIU def	Edge
Points / game	13.5 #136	20.6 #34	NIU
Yards / play	4.22 #134	4.99 #25	NIU
PPA / play	−0.04 #128	+0.09 #63	NIU
Success rate	35% #132	41% #54	NIU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

NIU scoring against the KENT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NIU scored	3.7 #111	5.6 #113	9.4 #116	7.1 #50	7.2 #61	14.3 #45
KENT allowed	8.3 #120	9.1 #95	17.4 #116	7.5 #111	9.5 #117	17.0 #123

KENT scoring against the NIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KENT scored	4.1 #103	3.6 #132	7.7 #130	4.0 #111	1.8 #132	5.8 #132
NIU allowed	4.9 #55	4.9 #19	9.8 #27	5.5 #61	5.0 #33	10.5 #39

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.