Miami (OH) @ Ball State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2023)

Sat, Nov 25, 2023, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Ball State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff37°F6 mphgusts 16DryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Miami (OH)

9-2 · Power #78

▲ winner

Final

Ball State

4-7 · Power #113

final

Closing spread

M-OH -3.5

✓ BALL W

Total

34.5

▼ Under · 32 pts

Model before kickoff

M-OH 22–18 BALL

✓ M-OH (62%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseM-OH -3.5

Total34.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseM-OH -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close34.5

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 53%, covered 43% (53 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseM-OH -3.5

Total34.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like M-OH as a 3.5-point road favorite at BALL, the favorite won 3, covered 3, and 8 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: M-OH won 17–15; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 32 points stayed under 34.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 48%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: underdog by 5.3 against an average line of 3; 47.5 points a game (usually 54.1). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NEB @ MSU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & spread	-3	17–20	L	O34.5
Close	SJSU @ SDSU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.25	27–43	L	O41
Close	CCU @ ARMY 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar season form & situation	-1.5	21–28	L	O40.5
Close	RUTG @ IU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & situation	-6	31–14	W	O39.5
Close	FAU @ GASO 2020 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	3–20	L	U40.5
Close	CSU @ WYO 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	17–31	L	O41.5
Close	WYO @ UNM 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & total	-3	27–14	W	O37
Close	UL @ USM 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	24–39	L	O42.75
Close	TROY @ UL 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	23–17	W	U42.5
Close	PITT @ VT 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	21–38	L	O40

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
M-OH WLWWW	9-2	82%	5-1	7-0
BALL WWWWW	6-4-1	60%	4-1	4-4-1

Venue/role: M-OH away, as favorite; BALL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
M-OH OUOUU	5-4	56%	9-2
BALL UUOUU	4-6	40%	4-7

Stayed under: it needed 6 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 46% of games with totals 30.5–38.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
M-OH	9-1 90%	9-1 90%	5-4 56%
BALL	4-6 40%	6-3-1 67%	3-6 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

M-OH−11.1 →−2.3▲ 8.8#75

BALL−7.6 →−11.7▼ 4.1#121

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

M-OH

Longer bar = better

BALL

#73

Offense

◀ M-OH better

#113

#27

Defense

◀ M-OH better

#69

0.0 #65

Turnovers

◀ M-OH better

−0.5 #112

58 plays #133

Pace

BALL faster ▶

64 plays #98

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When M-OH has the ball

Even matchup

	M-OH off	BALL def	Edge
Points / game	28.2 #64	25.1 #63	Even
Yards / play	5.93 #57	5.23 #42	Even
PPA / play	+0.15 #59	+0.15 #91	M-OH
Success rate	39% #110	43% #79	BALL

When BALL has the ball

Advantage: M-OH defense

	BALL off	M-OH def	Edge
Points / game	18.5 #124	16.5 #8	M-OH
Yards / play	4.73 #126	4.85 #21	M-OH
PPA / play	+0.06 #95	+0.04 #33	M-OH
Success rate	39% #105	40% #45	M-OH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

M-OH scoring against the BALL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
M-OH scored	7.5 #35	7.3 #77	14.8 #62	7.6 #38	5.1 #105	12.7 #71
BALL allowed	3.6 #24	10.5 #118	14.1 #86	6.0 #75	5.0 #33	11.0 #46

BALL scoring against the M-OH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BALL scored	2.7 #124	4.5 #131	7.3 #133	4.5 #103	6.8 #64	11.3 #96
M-OH allowed	4.5 #41	4.2 #12	8.6 #17	3.8 #24	4.0 #13	7.8 #12

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.