Coastal Carolina @ Army: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sat, Nov 18, 2023, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Army

Weather at kickoff48°F12 mphgusts 30DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Coastal Carolina

7-3 · Power #70

final

Final

Army

4-6 · Power #104

▲ winner

Closing spread

CCU -1

✓ ARMY W

Total

40.5

▲ Over · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

CCU 23–20 ARMY

✗ CCU (56%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCCU -1

Total40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseCCU -1

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close40.5

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–3 since 2023: won 47%, covered 43% (49 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseCCU -1

Total40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CCU as a 1-point road favorite at ARMY, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ARMY won 28–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 49 points went over 40.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 2 against an average line of 2.5; 40.2 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SJSU @ SDSU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-2.25	27–43	L	O41
Very close	CSU @ WYO 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	17–31	L	O41.5
Very close	UL @ USM 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & season form	-2.5	24–39	L	O42.75
Very close	FAU @ GASO 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & rest	-2.5	3–20	L	U40.5
Very close	MD @ NEB 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	13–10	W	U42
Very close	AFA @ SDSU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	13–3	W	U43.5
Very close	NCSU @ WAKE 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2	26–6	W	U43
Close	AFA @ CSU 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-3	35–21	W	O45
Close	PITT @ VT 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar total & rest	-2.5	21–38	L	O40
Close	MRSH @ ODU 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	12–0	W	U46.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CCU WWWWW	8-2	80%	4-1	3-1
ARMY LLLWL	3-6-1	33%	1-4	2-2-1

Venue/role: CCU away, as favorite; ARMY home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CCU UUUOU	2-7	22%	7-3
ARMY UOUUU	3-5	38%	4-6

Went over in Q3. Of 50 earlier overs in games with totals 36.5–44.5, 28% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CCU	7-3 70%	8-2 80%	2-7 22%
ARMY	4-6 40%	3-6-1 33%	3-5 38%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CCU−2.7 →+0.3▲ 3.0#63

ARMY−0.7 →−8.2▼ 7.5#106

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

CCU

Longer bar = better

ARMY

#54

Offense

◀ CCU better

#116

#55

Defense

◀ CCU better

#84

+0.5 #29

Turnovers

◀ CCU better

−0.4 #104

70 plays #40

Pace

◀ CCU faster

61 plays #124

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CCU has the ball

Advantage: CCU offense

	CCU off	ARMY def	Edge
Points / game	30.1 #50	22.1 #44	Even
Yards / play	6.26 #37	5.86 #90	CCU
PPA / play	+0.16 #54	+0.13 #82	CCU
Success rate	42% #76	46% #119	CCU

When ARMY has the ball

Advantage: CCU defense

	ARMY off	CCU def	Edge
Points / game	20.1 #117	21.2 #41	CCU
Yards / play	5.08 #109	5.58 #68	CCU
PPA / play	+0.03 #114	+0.05 #45	CCU
Success rate	37% #123	42% #67	CCU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

CCU scoring against the ARMY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CCU scored	7.2 #42	9.4 #42	16.6 #38	7.6 #40	5.9 #92	13.5 #55
ARMY allowed	3.6 #25	6.7 #52	10.3 #31	4.8 #49	7.0 #78	11.8 #60

ARMY scoring against the CCU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARMY scored	6.0 #70	6.3 #99	12.3 #86	3.1 #121	4.7 #115	7.8 #128
CCU allowed	3.7 #26	6.0 #33	9.7 #27	5.5 #62	6.0 #55	11.5 #56

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.