Georgia State @ LSU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sat, Nov 18, 2023, 8:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at LSU

Weather at kickoff63°F7 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Georgia State

6-4 · Power #91

final

Final

LSU

7-3 · Power #10

▲ winner

Closing spread

LSU -32.5

✓ LSU W

Total

▼ Under · 70 pts

Model before kickoff

GAST 19–51 LSU

✓ LSU (99%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLSU -32.5

Total74

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseLSU -32.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close74

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLSU -32.5

Total74

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 3 games most like LSU as a 32.5-point home favorite against GAST, the favorite won 3, covered 0, and 1 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: LSU won 56–14; the favorite covered, as in 0 of the 3 similar games. 70 points stayed under 74, as in 2 of 3.

Favorite won

3 of 3100%

Normal range · usually 96%

Favorite covered

0 of 30%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

1 of 333%

Normal range · usually 54%

Only 3 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 21 against an average line of 32.3; 55 points a game (usually 56.5). When games like this go over ›

All 3 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	UCF vs TEM 2020 · Week 11 · close · similar total & situation	-29	38–13	L	U72.5
Loose	TENN vs VAN 2021 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & spread	-32	45–21	L	O64.5
Loose	MISS vs VAN 2021 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & situation	-35.75	31–17	L	U65.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GAST WWLLL	5-5	50%	3-1	2-1
LSU WWWLW	6-4	60%	4-1	6-3

Venue/role: GAST away, as underdog; LSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GAST OUOOU	5-5	50%	6-4
LSU –OOOO	8-0	100%	7-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GAST	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
LSU	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	8-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GAST−3.6 →−5.8▼ 2.2#96

LSU−6.4 →+17.7▲ 24.1#8

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

GAST

Longer bar = better

LSU

#74

Offense

LSU better ▶

#94

Defense

◀ GAST better

#118

+0.3 #39

Turnovers

LSU better ▶

+0.5 #25

67 plays #66

Pace

Even

67 plays #70

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GAST has the ball

Advantage: GAST offense

	GAST off	LSU def	Edge
Points / game	27.1 #72	28.9 #100	GAST
Yards / play	5.69 #71	6.22 #118	GAST
PPA / play	+0.12 #70	+0.27 #132	GAST
Success rate	41% #84	46% #123	GAST

When LSU has the ball

Advantage: LSU offense

	LSU off	GAST def	Edge
Points / game	45.9 #2	28.8 #97	LSU
Yards / play	8.41 #1	6.19 #117	LSU
PPA / play	+0.47 #2	+0.15 #91	LSU
Success rate	55% #2	42% #69	LSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

GAST scoring against the LSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GAST scored	6.3 #58	8.4 #59	14.7 #65	5.9 #73	6.5 #78	12.4 #74
LSU allowed	7.7 #112	6.5 #45	14.2 #88	5.4 #58	9.3 #117	14.7 #103

LSU scoring against the GAST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LSU scored	9.0 #14	14.4 #4	23.4 #5	11.4 #1	11.1 #2	22.5 #1
GAST allowed	3.7 #27	8.2 #86	11.9 #52	9.6 #131	7.3 #91	16.9 #123

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.