Southern Miss @ Mississippi State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sat, Nov 18, 2023, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Mississippi State

Weather at kickoff63°F7 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Southern Miss

3-7 · Power #121

final

Final

Mississippi State

4-6 · Power #64

▲ winner

Closing spread

MSST -18

✓ MSST W

Total

▲ Over · 61 pts

Model before kickoff

USM 15–32 MSST

✓ MSST (89%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMSST -18

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseMSST -18

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48

Line context

Home favorites of 16–20 since 2023: won 95%, covered 45% (58 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseMSST -18

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MSST as an 18-point home favorite against USM, the favorite won 9, covered 1, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: MSST won 41–20; the favorite covered, as in 1 of the 10 similar games. 61 points went over 48, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 88%

Favorite covered

1 of 1010%

Below normal · usually 50%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Covers below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 7.5 against an average line of 16.8; 44.9 points a game (usually 55.4). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ILL vs FAU 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar season form & rest	-16	23–17	L	U45.5
Very close	IU vs AKR 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & rest	-16.5	29–27	L	O46
Very close	UK vs VAN 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-17	21–24	L	U45.5
Very close	UTSA vs ECU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & spread	-17.5	41–27	L	O48
Close	TROY vs ULM 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar total & rest	-15	34–16	W	O48.5
Close	SC vs VAN 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total	-18.75	21–20	L	U50
Close	NEB vs LT 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar team ratings & rest	-20.5	28–14	L	U45
Close	APP vs ODU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-16	27–14	L	U50.5
Close	TROY vs TXST 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar total & rest	-16.5	17–14	L	U47
Close	BC vs CONN 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar total & rest	-14.5	21–14	L	U49

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USM LLWWW	4-6	40%	2-3	2-4
MSST LWLLL	2-8	20%	1-5	1-2

Venue/role: USM away, as underdog; MSST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USM –OOUO	7-2	78%	3-7
MSST OUPUO	5-4-1	56%	4-6

Went over in Q4. Of 136 earlier overs in games with totals 44–52, 31% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USM	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	7-2 78%
MSST	4-6 40%	2-8 20%	5-4-1 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USM−0.3 →−11.0▼ 10.7#117

MSST+2.3 →−1.2▼ 3.5#72

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

USM

Longer bar = better

MSST

#97

Offense

Even

#110

#114

Defense

MSST better ▶

#83

+0.2 #53

Turnovers

◀ USM better

−0.4 #103

72 plays #21

Pace

◀ USM faster

61 plays #126

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USM has the ball

Even matchup

	USM off	MSST def	Edge
Points / game	24.1 #89	28.2 #90	Even
Yards / play	5.16 #103	5.60 #70	MSST
PPA / play	+0.10 #80	+0.12 #75	Even
Success rate	38% #114	44% #98	Even

When MSST has the ball

Even matchup

	MSST off	USM def	Edge
Points / game	21.4 #110	35.3 #128	Even
Yards / play	5.34 #87	6.95 #135	MSST
PPA / play	0.00 #118	+0.18 #108	Even
Success rate	37% #124	43% #85	USM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

USM scoring against the MSST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USM scored	6.1 #68	6.1 #103	12.2 #88	5.6 #79	5.7 #100	11.3 #94
MSST allowed	7.2 #105	10.6 #118	17.8 #117	6.1 #76	4.3 #17	10.4 #36

MSST scoring against the USM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSST scored	3.7 #114	7.1 #82	10.8 #106	4.8 #98	5.1 #107	9.9 #110
USM allowed	9.8 #131	7.5 #74	17.3 #112	9.0 #124	8.7 #103	17.7 #130

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.