East Carolina @ UTSA: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Sat, Oct 28, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at UTSA · Conference game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

East Carolina

1-6 · Power #110

final

Final

UTSA

4-3 · Power #56

▲ winner

Closing spread

UTSA -17.5

✓ ECU W

Total

▲ Over · 68 pts

Model before kickoff

ECU 15–32 UTSA

✓ UTSA (88%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUTSA -17.5

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUTSA -17.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48

Line context

Home favorites of 15.5–19.5 since 2023: won 98%, covered 51% (41 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUTSA -17.5

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UTSA as a 17.5-point home favorite against ECU, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UTSA won 41–27; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 68 points went over 48, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.3 against an average line of 16.5; 48.9 points a game (usually 55.6). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	APP vs ODU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-16	27–14	L	U50.5
Very close	USA vs ODU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-16.5	27–20	L	P47
Very close	IU vs AKR 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-16.5	29–27	L	O46
Very close	MEM vs TEM 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-18.5	24–3	W	U50
Very close	M-OH vs BGSU 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-17	34–7	W	U52
Close	WSU vs ARIZ 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-14.75	44–18	W	O52.5
Close	LT vs USM 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar total & rest	-15.5	19–35	L	O47.5
Close	USA vs USM 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total	-18.5	55–3	W	O51
Close	PUR vs NU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & rest	-17.5	17–9	L	U44.5
Close	TOL vs BGSU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-14.5	35–42	L	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ECU LWLLL	2-5	29%	1-2	1-4
UTSA LLWWW	3-4	43%	1-2	3-3

Venue/role: ECU away, as underdog; UTSA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ECU OUUUU	2-5	29%	1-6
UTSA OP–UU	1-4-1	20%	4-3

Went over in Q2. Of 100 earlier overs in games with totals 44–52, 30% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ECUlast 7	1-6 14%	2-5 29%	2-5 29%
UTSAlast 7	4-3 57%	3-4 43%	1-4-1 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ECU−10.0 →−8.8▲ 1.2#107

UTSA+0.7 →−0.9▼ 1.6#67

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

ECU

Longer bar = better

UTSA

#133

Offense

UTSA better ▶

#73

#46

Defense

Even

#56

+0.1 #58

Turnovers

◀ ECU better

−0.6 #117

67 plays #70

Pace

UTSA faster ▶

73 plays #20

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ECU has the ball

Advantage: UTSA defense

	ECU off	UTSA def	Edge
Points / game	17.4 #127	25.1 #68	UTSA
Yards / play	4.11 #135	5.12 #36	UTSA
PPA / play	−0.13 #136	+0.10 #70	UTSA
Success rate	32% #134	40% #48	UTSA

When UTSA has the ball

Advantage: ECU defense

	UTSA off	ECU def	Edge
Points / game	29.0 #69	24.1 #61	Even
Yards / play	5.41 #89	5.20 #46	ECU
PPA / play	+0.10 #78	+0.09 #67	Even
Success rate	43% #57	34% #8	ECU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

ECU scoring against the UTSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ECU scored	3.3 #118	7.1 #86	10.4 #112	2.4 #129	4.6 #112	7.0 #127
UTSA allowed	9.4 #127	7.0 #62	16.4 #111	3.4 #22	5.3 #45	8.7 #23

UTSA scoring against the ECU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTSA scored	6.4 #56	8.3 #65	14.7 #65	7.3 #44	7.0 #58	14.3 #52
ECU allowed	5.3 #73	5.6 #30	10.9 #50	5.9 #69	7.4 #91	13.3 #84

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.