Liberty @ Western Kentucky: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Tue, Oct 24, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Western Kentucky · Conference game

Weather at kickoff65°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Liberty

7-0 · Power #32

▲ winner

Final

Western Kentucky

4-3 · Power #83

final

Closing spread

LIB -4

✓ LIB W

Total

61.5

▲ Over · 71 pts

Model before kickoff

LIB 34–30 WKU

✓ LIB (62%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLIB -4

Total61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseLIB -4

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close61.5

Line context

Road favorites of 2–6 since 2023: won 59%, covered 44% (54 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLIB -4

Total61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LIB as a 4-point road favorite at WKU, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: LIB won 42–29; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 71 points went over 61.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.4 against an average line of 4.3; 56.6 points a game (usually 54.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ORST @ WSU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4	24–31	L	U59
Very close	UTSA @ LT 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	45–16	W	O59.5
Very close	UCLA @ STAN 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4	35–24	W	U60
Very close	UCF @ ECU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & total	-5.5	13–34	L	U63
Very close	UCF @ MEM 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & season form	-3	35–28	W	O60.5
Very close	CCU @ GAST 2020 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	51–0	W	U60.5
Very close	APP @ CCU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	28–35	L	U65.25
Very close	APP @ UL 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & situation	-4.25	13–41	L	U57.5
Very close	HOU @ TULN 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & total	-6.5	40–22	W	O60
Very close	WSU @ ARIZ 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4	31–20	W	U63

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LIB WWLWL	4-3	57%	3-0	4-3
WKU LWWLL	3-4	43%	2-1	1-1

Venue/role: LIB away, as favorite; WKU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LIB OU–UO	2-3	40%	7-0
WKU OUU–U	2-3	40%	4-3

Went over in Q4. Of 47 earlier overs in games with totals 57.5–65.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LIBlast 7	7-0 100%	4-3 57%	2-3 40%
WKUlast 7	4-3 57%	3-4 43%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

LIB 3–0 WKU LIB leads · 3 games since 2020 · LIB has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LIB+3.0 →+4.9▲ 1.9#37

WKU+3.1 →−3.2▼ 6.3#83

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

LIB

Longer bar = better

WKU

#16

Offense

◀ LIB better

#75

#36

Defense

◀ LIB better

#94

+1.3 #3

Turnovers

Even

+1.3 #5

71 plays #35

Pace

◀ LIB faster

68 plays #67

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LIB has the ball

Advantage: LIB offense

	LIB off	WKU def	Edge
Points / game	36.3 #16	27.7 #89	LIB
Yards / play	6.90 #11	5.92 #99	LIB
PPA / play	+0.26 #19	+0.11 #81	LIB
Success rate	49% #16	44% #106	LIB

When WKU has the ball

Advantage: LIB defense

	WKU off	LIB def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #51	19.7 #33	Even
Yards / play	5.64 #75	5.19 #44	LIB
PPA / play	+0.13 #66	−0.02 #19	LIB
Success rate	39% #109	39% #48	LIB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

LIB scoring against the WKU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LIB scored	8.4 #24	12.6 #10	21.0 #8	9.9 #11	5.4 #94	15.3 #36
WKU allowed	4.0 #43	10.7 #115	14.7 #95	6.4 #87	6.6 #76	13.0 #78

WKU scoring against the LIB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WKU scored	11.7 #6	8.3 #67	20.0 #13	4.0 #110	6.0 #82	10.0 #110
LIB allowed	6.3 #93	6.9 #60	13.1 #80	5.7 #67	0.9 #1	6.6 #7

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.