Oklahoma @ Kansas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Sat, Oct 28, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Kansas · Conference game

Weather at kickoff39°F8 mphgusts 20DryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Oklahoma

7-0 · Power #9

final

Final

Kansas

5-2 · Power #24

▲ winner

Closing spread

OU -7.5

✓ KU W

Total

66.5

▲ Over · 71 pts

Model before kickoff

OU 37–28 KU

✗ OU (73%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOU -7.5

Total66.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseOU -7.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close66.5

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–9.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 64% (49 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOU -7.5

Total66.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OU as a 7.5-point road favorite at KU, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: KU won 38–33 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 71 points went over 66.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 7.3 against an average line of 7.2; 63.7 points a game (usually 53.9). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	UCF @ ECU 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & situation	-5.5	13–34	L	U63
Close	ALA @ MISS 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-11	30–24	L	U65.5
Close	TEX @ KU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & situation	-9	55–14	W	O63.5
Close	TCU @ WVU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-7	41–31	W	O69.75
Close	TEX @ TCU 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & total	-4	32–27	W	U65.5
Close	TCU @ KU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-7	38–31	P	U70.25
Close	TEX @ TTU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & situation	-7	34–37	L	O60.25
Close	UCF @ LOU 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & total	-7	35–42	L	O67.5
Close	LSU @ MIZ 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-6	49–39	W	O63.5
Close	ND @ UVA 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-8	28–3	W	U62.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OU WWWWL	6-1	86%	2-0	5-1
KU LWLWL	3-4	43%	3-1	0-1

Venue/role: OU away, as favorite; KU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OU OUO–U	2-3	40%	7-0
KU UOU–O	3-3	50%	5-2

Went over in Q4. Of 15 earlier overs in games with totals 62.5–70.5, 27% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OUlast 7	7-0 100%	6-1 86%	2-3 40%
KUlast 7	5-2 71%	3-4 43%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OU+20.5 →+19.4▼ 1.1#3

KU+2.0 →+4.6▲ 2.6#40

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

Longer bar = better

#14

Offense

Even

#10

#25

Defense

◀ OU better

#103

+1.4 #2

Turnovers

◀ OU better

+0.3 #45

77 plays #5

Pace

◀ OU faster

62 plays #116

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OU has the ball

Advantage: OU offense

	OU off	KU def	Edge
Points / game	43.1 #4	27.4 #85	OU
Yards / play	6.49 #28	6.00 #104	OU
PPA / play	+0.29 #15	+0.19 #111	OU
Success rate	53% #8	45% #113	OU

When KU has the ball

Even matchup

	KU off	OU def	Edge
Points / game	35.4 #21	16.1 #13	Even
Yards / play	7.15 #7	5.10 #35	KU
PPA / play	+0.35 #5	−0.01 #25	Even
Success rate	53% #7	37% #25	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

OU scoring against the KU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OU scored	15.0 #1	11.3 #18	26.3 #2	9.0 #17	7.9 #44	16.9 #22
KU allowed	5.9 #85	5.7 #33	11.6 #54	6.0 #76	9.9 #121	15.9 #113

KU scoring against the OU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KU scored	7.4 #36	10.4 #33	17.9 #29	10.1 #9	7.4 #50	17.6 #16
OU allowed	3.3 #28	7.3 #71	10.6 #43	2.1 #8	3.4 #8	5.6 #5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.