West Virginia @ UCF: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Sat, Oct 28, 2023, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at UCF · Conference game

Weather at kickoff84°F12 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

West Virginia

4-3 · Power #39

▲ winner

Final

UCF

3-4 · Power #31

final

Closing spread

UCF -6.5

✓ WVU W

Total

▲ Over · 69 pts

Model before kickoff

WVU 24–30 UCF

✗ UCF (68%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUCF -6.5

Total59

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUCF -6.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close59

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 58% (43 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUCF -6.5

Total59

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UCF as a 6.5-point home favorite against WVU, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: WVU won 41–28 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 69 points went over 59, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.5 against an average line of 6.6; 63.1 points a game (usually 54.2). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UCLA vs STAN 2020 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & total	-6.5	47–48	L	O59.5
Very close	UCLA vs CAL 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-6.5	42–14	W	U58.5
Very close	MIA vs VT 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	38–26	W	O55.5
Very close	SMU vs TLSA 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	31–34	L	O62.5
Very close	MIZ vs SC 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	34–12	W	U57.5
Very close	FLA vs SC 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-8	38–6	W	U58
Very close	ECU vs MEM 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	47–45	L	O62.5
Very close	BYU vs BSU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & total	-6	17–26	L	U58
Very close	OKST vs WVU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-5.5	19–24	L	U59.75
Very close	SMU vs UCF 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	55–28	W	O61.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WVU WWWLL	4-3	57%	1-2	2-1
UCF WLLLW	3-4	43%	2-1	2-2

Venue/role: WVU away, as underdog; UCF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WVU UUUOO	3-3	50%	4-3
UCF OOO–U	3-2	60%	3-4

Went over in Q4. Of 70 earlier overs in games with totals 55–63, 26% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WVUlast 7	4-3 57%	4-3 57%	3-3 50%
UCFlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WVU−6.5 →+0.8▲ 7.3#58

UCF+15.6 →+4.0▼ 11.6#42

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

WVU

Longer bar = better

UCF

#71

Offense

UCF better ▶

#28

#71

Defense

◀ WVU better

#96

−0.3 #97

Turnovers

Even

−0.6 #109

71 plays #37

Pace

◀ WVU faster

69 plays #51

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WVU has the ball

Advantage: WVU offense

	WVU off	UCF def	Edge
Points / game	29.3 #64	28.3 #92	WVU
Yards / play	5.58 #76	5.61 #76	Even
PPA / play	+0.10 #75	+0.13 #91	Even
Success rate	42% #70	47% #125	WVU

When UCF has the ball

Advantage: UCF offense

	UCF off	WVU def	Edge
Points / game	34.1 #28	26.3 #79	UCF
Yards / play	7.21 #6	5.53 #70	UCF
PPA / play	+0.23 #32	+0.11 #79	UCF
Success rate	44% #44	41% #57	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

WVU scoring against the UCF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WVU scored	4.4 #100	10.3 #35	14.7 #66	5.4 #87	9.1 #26	14.6 #50
UCF allowed	4.9 #63	6.9 #60	11.7 #58	4.1 #37	12.4 #133	16.6 #119

UCF scoring against the WVU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCF scored	9.3 #15	9.7 #43	19.0 #17	7.0 #50	8.1 #35	15.1 #42
WVU allowed	6.3 #94	5.3 #25	11.6 #54	4.0 #34	10.7 #127	14.7 #99

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.