UCF @ Cincinnati: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sat, Nov 4, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Cincinnati · Conference game

Weather at kickoff64°F8 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

UCF

3-5 · Power #31

▲ winner

Final

Cincinnati

2-6 · Power #76

final

Closing spread

UCF -3.5

✓ CIN W

Total

▼ Under · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

UCF 31–28 CIN

✓ UCF (59%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUCF -3.5

Total60

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseUCF -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close60

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 52%, covered 43% (42 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseUCF -3.5

Total60

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UCF as a 3.5-point road favorite at CIN, the favorite won 7, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: UCF won 28–26; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 54 points stayed under 60, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

3 of 838%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 9.7 against an average line of 3; 51.9 points a game (usually 54.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NEV @ CSU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	52–10	W	O57.75
Very close	MIA @ FSU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	28–31	L	U61.25
Very close	TTU @ BAY 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-2.5	39–14	W	U59.5
Very close	BYU @ WSU 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	21–19	L	U56.5
Very close	GT @ DUKE 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-4.5	31–27	L	U60.5
Very close	ARK @ LSU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	16–13	P	U59.5
Very close	UTSA @ FAU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	36–10	W	U58.5
Very close	ARK @ MIZ 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3	27–29	L	O55.5
Very close	PUR @ MINN 2020 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & situation	-2.25	31–34	L	O61
Very close	COLO @ ASU 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	27–24	P	U58.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UCF LLLWL	3-5	38%	1-3	2-3
CIN LLLLL	2-6	25%	1-4	1-2

Venue/role: UCF away, as favorite; CIN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UCF OO–UO	4-2	67%	3-5
CIN UOUOO	6-2	75%	2-6

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 16. 41% of games with totals 56–64 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UCFlast 8	3-5 38%	3-5 38%	4-2 67%
CINlast 8	2-6 25%	2-6 25%	6-2 75%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UCF+15.6 →+3.0▼ 12.6#46

CIN+1.0 →−1.2▼ 2.2#70

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

UCF

Longer bar = better

CIN

#24

Offense

◀ UCF better

#72

#100

Defense

CIN better ▶

#84

−0.9 #125

Turnovers

CIN better ▶

−0.5 #108

69 plays #48

Pace

CIN faster ▶

76 plays #7

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UCF has the ball

Advantage: UCF offense

	UCF off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	33.4 #31	28.4 #93	UCF
Yards / play	7.15 #7	6.05 #107	UCF
PPA / play	+0.22 #27	+0.17 #103	UCF
Success rate	46% #32	38% #34	Even

When CIN has the ball

Advantage: CIN offense

	CIN off	UCF def	Edge
Points / game	25.3 #83	29.9 #103	Even
Yards / play	5.88 #59	5.67 #77	Even
PPA / play	+0.13 #68	+0.15 #91	CIN
Success rate	41% #79	47% #128	CIN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

UCF scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCF scored	9.0 #14	9.4 #45	18.4 #23	7.0 #48	8.0 #37	15.0 #41
CIN allowed	5.1 #66	7.3 #66	12.4 #60	8.4 #118	6.8 #80	15.1 #109

CIN scoring against the UCF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	7.3 #44	7.3 #85	14.5 #66	4.5 #105	6.3 #82	10.8 #100
UCF allowed	5.5 #78	6.9 #60	12.4 #60	4.5 #40	13.0 #133	17.5 #125

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.