Houston @ Baylor: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sat, Nov 4, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Baylor · Conference game

Weather at kickoff76°F11 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Houston

3-5 · Power #88

▲ winner

Final

Baylor

3-5 · Power #93

final

Closing spread

BAY -2

✓ HOU W

Total

58.5

▼ Under · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

HOU 26–28 BAY

✗ BAY (55%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBAY -2

Total58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseBAY -2

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close58.5

Line context

Home favorites of 1–3 since 2023: won 48%, covered 43% (44 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseBAY -2

Total58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BAY as a 2-point home favorite against HOU, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: HOU won 25–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 49 points stayed under 58.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 4.7 against an average line of 2.4; 55.7 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FSU vs DUKE 2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar situation & total	-3	56–35	W	O57
Very close	USM vs ODU 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	13–17	L	U56.5
Very close	USF vs FAU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	14–56	L	O61
Very close	FSU vs LOU 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1.25	23–31	L	U60.75
Very close	CMU vs BUFF 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2.75	31–27	W	O54
Very close	PUR vs ILL 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1	44–19	W	O53.5
Very close	FAU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-3	20–17	P	U54.5
Very close	WMU vs OHIO 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2	14–33	L	U61.5
Very close	MD vs RUTG 2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	24–27	L	U54.5
Very close	RUTG vs MD 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2	16–40	L	O53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU WLWWL	4-4	50%	0-3	3-3
BAY LWLWL	2-5-1	29%	0-5-1	0-3

Venue/role: HOU away, as underdog; BAY home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU OOOUU	4-4	50%	3-5
BAY UO–OO	3-3	50%	3-5

Stayed under: it needed 42 in the 4th quarter and got 32. 46% of games with totals 54.5–62.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOUlast 8	3-5 38%	4-4 50%	4-4 50%
BAYlast 8	3-5 38%	2-5-1 29%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HOU−2.3 →−3.2▼ 0.9#82

BAY−3.4 →−4.4▼ 1.0#89

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

HOU

Longer bar = better

BAY

#86

Offense

◀ HOU better

#103

#110

Defense

Even

#104

+0.5 #35

Turnovers

Even

+0.4 #40

68 plays #55

Pace

BAY faster ▶

72 plays #27

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HOU has the ball

Even matchup

	HOU off	BAY def	Edge
Points / game	25.3 #84	30.0 #106	HOU
Yards / play	5.60 #74	6.22 #118	HOU
PPA / play	+0.05 #100	+0.19 #109	Even
Success rate	41% #85	43% #83	Even

When BAY has the ball

Even matchup

	BAY off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	22.5 #102	32.5 #112	Even
Yards / play	5.42 #89	5.94 #97	Even
PPA / play	+0.04 #102	+0.20 #117	Even
Success rate	37% #118	46% #115	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

HOU scoring against the BAY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	5.1 #85	8.6 #58	13.8 #73	3.5 #117	6.4 #79	9.9 #114
BAY allowed	7.0 #105	10.8 #119	17.8 #117	5.5 #64	6.8 #80	12.3 #67

BAY scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAY scored	3.3 #117	6.9 #93	10.1 #115	4.9 #102	7.5 #51	12.4 #80
HOU allowed	10.9 #130	8.6 #92	19.5 #126	4.1 #33	7.0 #84	11.1 #54

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.