Iowa vs Northwestern: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sat, Nov 4, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · Neutral site · Conference game

Weather at kickoff51°F13 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

Iowa

6-2 · Power #54

▲ winner

Final

Northwestern

4-4 · Power #65

final

Closing spread

IOWA -6

✓ NU W

Total

31.5

▼ Under · 17 pts

Model before kickoff

IOWA 20–14 NU

✓ IOWA (67%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseIOWA -6

Total31.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseIOWA -6

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close31.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseIOWA -6

Total31.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 5 games most like IOWA as a 6-point neutral-site favorite against NU, the favorite won 2, covered 1, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: IOWA won 10–7; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 5 similar games. 17 points stayed under 31.5, as in 4 of 5.

Favorite won

2 of 540%

Normal range · usually 65%

Favorite covered

1 of 520%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

1 of 520%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 5 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 2.6 against an average line of 4.4; 28.6 points a game (usually 53.9). When games like this go over ›

All 5 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ARMY vs NAVY 2021 · Week 15 · close · similar spread & situation	-7	13–17	L	U35.5
Close	NAVY vs ARMY 2022 · Week 15 · close · similar total & situation	-2.5	17–20	L	O32
Loose	IOWA vs UK 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar total & season form	-3	21–0	W	U31.5
Loose	AFA vs ARMY 2021 · Week 10 · loose	-2.5	14–21	L	U37.5
Loose	AFA vs ARMY 2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar spread	-7	13–7	L	U40.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
IOWA LPWWL	4-3-1	57%	—	3-2-1
NU WLLWW	4-4	50%	—	3-3

Venue/role: IOWA neutral, as favorite; NU neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IOWA UO–UU	2-5	29%	6-2
NU OOUUO	5-3	63%	4-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IOWAlast 8	6-2 75%	4-3-1 57%	2-5 29%
NUlast 8	4-4 50%	4-4 50%	5-3 63%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

IOWA 55–28 NU (3 tied) IOWA leads · 86 games since 1897 · IOWA has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IOWA+3.8 →+1.9▼ 1.9#53

NU−3.1 →−4.5▼ 1.4#90

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

IOWA

Longer bar = better

#132

Offense

NU better ▶

#110

Defense

◀ IOWA better

#78

−0.3 #89

Turnovers

NU better ▶

+0.4 #42

56 plays #133

Pace

NU faster ▶

66 plays #83

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IOWA has the ball

Advantage: NU defense

	IOWA off	NU def	Edge
Points / game	19.5 #121	26.0 #73	NU
Yards / play	4.12 #135	5.32 #52	NU
PPA / play	−0.10 #135	+0.15 #94	NU
Success rate	31% #135	44% #93	NU

When NU has the ball

Advantage: IOWA defense

	NU off	IOWA def	Edge
Points / game	21.8 #109	14.5 #6	IOWA
Yards / play	4.69 #125	4.18 #5	IOWA
PPA / play	+0.06 #95	−0.10 #5	IOWA
Success rate	39% #111	35% #16	IOWA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

IOWA scoring against the NU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IOWA scored	3.8 #112	6.9 #93	10.6 #110	3.3 #121	5.6 #97	8.9 #119
NU allowed	6.0 #82	6.8 #55	12.8 #65	6.9 #96	6.0 #61	12.9 #77

NU scoring against the IOWA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NU scored	4.5 #102	5.1 #120	9.6 #117	4.3 #106	7.1 #58	11.4 #97
IOWA allowed	2.0 #4	3.6 #9	5.6 #5	4.5 #40	4.4 #21	8.9 #21

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.