Northwestern @ Wisconsin: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2023)

Sat, Nov 11, 2023, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Wisconsin · Conference game

Weather at kickoff43°F7 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Northwestern

4-5 · Power #65

▲ winner

Final

Wisconsin

5-4 · Power #42

final

Closing spread

WIS -12

✓ NU W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 34 pts

Model before kickoff

NU 17–29 WIS

✗ WIS (81%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWIS -12

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseWIS -12

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close43.5

Line context

Home favorites of 10–14 since 2023: won 85%, covered 39% (54 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWIS -12

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WIS as a 12-point home favorite against NU, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: NU won 24–10 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 34 points stayed under 43.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 79%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 15.2 against an average line of 12.6; 43.6 points a game (usually 55.7). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ORST vs CAL 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-11.5	38–10	W	O47
Very close	MINN vs ILL 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-14.5	6–14	L	U44
Very close	PSU vs RUTG 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-14	28–0	W	U45
Very close	MSU vs RUTG 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-10	27–21	L	O41
Very close	WVU vs BYU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-12.5	37–7	W	U48.5
Very close	LIB vs VT 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10.5	22–23	L	U46.25
Very close	NW vs ILL 2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & total	-13.5	28–10	W	U41.5
Very close	MINN vs RUTG 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-14	31–0	W	U40.5
Very close	PITT vs VT 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-14.5	45–29	W	O42
Very close	FRES vs SDSU 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-10.75	32–28	L	O44.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NU LLWWW	5-4	56%	1-2	4-3
WIS LLWWL	4-5	44%	2-3	3-5

Venue/role: NU away, as underdog; WIS home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NU OUUOU	5-4	56%	4-5
WIS –UOUU	3-5	38%	5-4

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 52% of games with totals 39.5–47.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NUlast 9	4-5 44%	5-4 56%	5-4 56%
WISlast 9	5-4 56%	4-5 44%	3-5 38%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NU−3.1 →−4.0▼ 0.9#86

WIS+6.6 →+5.3▼ 1.3#36

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

Longer bar = better

WIS

#118

Offense

WIS better ▶

#87

#65

Defense

WIS better ▶

#27

+0.4 #38

Turnovers

◀ NU better

−0.1 #78

65 plays #86

Pace

WIS faster ▶

72 plays #25

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NU has the ball

Advantage: WIS defense

	NU off	WIS def	Edge
Points / game	20.1 #118	19.1 #24	WIS
Yards / play	4.49 #130	4.87 #19	WIS
PPA / play	+0.04 #106	0.00 #23	WIS
Success rate	38% #117	39% #40	WIS

When WIS has the ball

Advantage: NU defense

	WIS off	NU def	Edge
Points / game	23.6 #94	24.2 #58	NU
Yards / play	5.23 #95	5.10 #34	NU
PPA / play	+0.06 #97	+0.12 #80	Even
Success rate	43% #60	43% #89	WIS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

NU scoring against the WIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NU scored	4.0 #110	4.6 #127	8.6 #124	3.8 #116	7.1 #60	10.9 #102
WIS allowed	3.8 #31	6.4 #47	10.2 #31	4.6 #45	4.3 #17	8.9 #20

WIS scoring against the NU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WIS scored	3.0 #120	6.4 #97	9.4 #114	8.2 #25	5.9 #93	14.1 #49
NU allowed	5.3 #68	6.0 #36	11.3 #46	6.9 #99	5.7 #53	12.6 #74

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.