Nebraska @ Wisconsin: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2023)

Sat, Nov 18, 2023, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Wisconsin · Conference game

Weather at kickoff43°F6 mphDryWeather watch ›

Nebraska

5-5 · Power #62

final

Final

Wisconsin

5-5 · Power #42

▲ winner

Closing spread

WIS -7

Push

Total

36.5

▲ Over · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

NEB 16–23 WIS

✓ WIS (69%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWIS -7

Total36.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseWIS -7

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close36.5

Line context

Home favorites of 6–8 since 2023: won 65%, covered 55% (57 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseWIS -7

Total36.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WIS as a 7-point home favorite against NEB, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: WIS won 24–17; the favorite pushed, as in 0 of the 10 similar games. 41 points went over 36.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3 against an average line of 7; 40.6 points a game (usually 53.9). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	AUB vs MSST 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	27–13	W	P40
Very close	BOIS vs SDSU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-6	35–13	W	O38
Very close	WIS vs IOWA 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-8.5	6–15	L	U33.5
Very close	MINN vs MSU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	27–12	W	U41
Close	OHIO vs M-OH 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	16–30	L	O39
Close	IU vs RUTG 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	3–38	L	U42.5
Close	CAL vs COLO 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-8.25	26–3	W	U44
Close	IOWA vs MINN 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar total & rest	-4	27–22	W	O37
Close	MSU vs RUTG 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-10	27–21	L	O41
Close	DUKE vs WAKE 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	24–21	L	O41

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NEB WLWLL	4-6	40%	2-2	3-3
WIS LWWLL	4-6	40%	2-4	3-6

Venue/role: NEB away, as underdog; WIS home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NEB –UOOU	4-4	50%	5-5
WIS UOUUU	3-6	33%	5-5

Went over in OT. Of 26 earlier overs in games with totals 32.5–40.5, 38% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NEB	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	4-4 50%
WIS	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	3-6 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NEB+0.1 →−0.5▼ 0.6#67

WIS+6.6 →+3.7▼ 2.9#42

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

NEB

Longer bar = better

WIS

#117

Offense

WIS better ▶

#90

#23

Defense

Even

#29

−1.4 #135

Turnovers

WIS better ▶

−0.2 #97

62 plays #119

Pace

WIS faster ▶

72 plays #26

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NEB has the ball

Advantage: WIS defense

	NEB off	WIS def	Edge
Points / game	18.9 #123	19.6 #26	WIS
Yards / play	5.06 #110	4.89 #22	WIS
PPA / play	−0.03 #124	+0.02 #27	WIS
Success rate	39% #112	39% #39	WIS

When WIS has the ball

Advantage: NEB defense

	WIS off	NEB def	Edge
Points / game	22.2 #104	18.2 #16	NEB
Yards / play	5.21 #98	4.71 #12	NEB
PPA / play	+0.06 #101	+0.04 #31	NEB
Success rate	43% #57	38% #31	NEB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

NEB scoring against the WIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEB scored	1.3 #133	5.9 #108	7.2 #133	4.8 #94	6.9 #64	11.7 #83
WIS allowed	4.1 #36	7.5 #67	11.6 #47	4.1 #35	3.9 #10	8.0 #14

WIS scoring against the NEB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WIS scored	3.0 #122	5.8 #111	8.8 #124	7.4 #41	6.0 #92	13.4 #59
NEB allowed	2.3 #8	6.1 #38	8.4 #15	2.0 #5	7.8 #96	9.8 #31

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.