Miami (OH) @ Ohio: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Sat, Oct 28, 2023, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Ohio · Conference game

Weather at kickoff67°F7 mphgusts 16Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Miami (OH)

6-2 · Power #78

▲ winner

Final

Ohio

6-2 · Power #63

final

Closing spread

OHIO -7.5

✓ M-OH W

Total

▲ Over · 46 pts

Model before kickoff

M-OH 18–25 OHIO

✗ OHIO (69%) lost

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOHIO -7.5

Total39

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseOHIO -7.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close39

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 63%, covered 54% (40 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseOHIO -7.5

Total39

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OHIO as a 7.5-point home favorite against M-OH, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: M-OH won 30–16 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 46 points went over 39, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11 against an average line of 5.9; 47 points a game (usually 53.9). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NCSU vs MRSH 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	48–41	W	O44
Very close	SC vs TROY 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	23–14	W	U43.5
Close	M-OH vs BGSU 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	27–0	W	U43
Close	MRSH vs GAST 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	28–23	L	O45.5
Close	ARMY vs GASO 2020 · Week 12 · close · similar total & rest	-3.5	28–27	L	O38.5
Close	RUTG vs VT 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-6.5	35–16	W	O37.5
Close	MRSH vs VT 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar total & spread	-5.5	24–17	W	U41.5
Close	TROY vs USM 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-7	27–10	W	U44
Close	WVU vs KSU 2020 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-5	37–10	W	O46
Close	MRSH vs UAB 2020 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-4.5	13–22	L	U44.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
M-OH WWWWL	6-2	75%	4-1	1-2
OHIO WWLLL	3-5	38%	1-3	1-4

Venue/role: M-OH away, as underdog; OHIO home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
M-OH OU–OU	4-2	67%	6-2
OHIO UU–UU	0-6	0%	6-2

Went over in Q4. Of 21 earlier overs in games with totals 35–43, 48% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
M-OHlast 8	6-2 75%	6-2 75%	4-2 67%
OHIOlast 8	6-2 75%	3-5 38%	0-6 0%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

M-OH−11.1 →−2.6▲ 8.5#79

OHIO+0.9 →−1.0▼ 1.9#70

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

M-OH

Longer bar = better

OHIO

#55

Offense

◀ M-OH better

#83

#46

Defense

OHIO better ▶

#11

−0.5 #105

Turnovers

OHIO better ▶

+0.1 #65

59 plays #129

Pace

OHIO faster ▶

69 plays #58

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When M-OH has the ball

Advantage: OHIO defense

	M-OH off	OHIO def	Edge
Points / game	29.8 #57	13.9 #6	OHIO
Yards / play	6.21 #42	4.65 #15	OHIO
PPA / play	+0.19 #41	−0.11 #4	OHIO
Success rate	41% #79	35% #17	OHIO

When OHIO has the ball

Advantage: M-OH defense

	OHIO off	M-OH def	Edge
Points / game	22.5 #105	19.4 #28	M-OH
Yards / play	5.11 #105	4.99 #28	M-OH
PPA / play	+0.09 #84	+0.08 #63	M-OH
Success rate	45% #37	41% #63	OHIO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

M-OH scoring against the OHIO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
M-OH scored	9.5 #12	6.8 #100	16.3 #49	8.1 #34	4.5 #115	12.6 #77
OHIO allowed	1.3 #3	3.4 #7	4.6 #2	2.9 #13	6.4 #70	9.3 #29

OHIO scoring against the M-OH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OHIO scored	4.1 #106	8.5 #61	12.6 #88	6.5 #61	3.4 #128	9.9 #111
M-OH allowed	5.0 #66	5.4 #26	10.4 #38	4.4 #38	4.6 #32	9.0 #27

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.