Georgia State @ Georgia Southern: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2023)

Thu, Oct 26, 2023, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Georgia Southern · Conference game

Weather at kickoff69°F6 mphDryWeather watch ›

Georgia State

6-1 · Power #91

final

Final

Georgia Southern

5-2 · Power #92

▲ winner

Closing spread

Pick’em

✓ GASO W

Total

▲ Over · 71 pts

Model before kickoff

GAST 31–32 GASO

✓ GASO (51%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

ClosePick’em

Total63

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GAST WWLWW	5-2	71%	3-0	—
GASO LWWLL	3-3-1	50%	2-1-1	—

Venue/role: GAST away; GASO home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GAST OUUOU	3-4	43%	6-1
GASO UUUUO	2-5	29%	5-2

Went over in Q4. Of 38 earlier overs in games with totals 59–67, 26% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GASTlast 7	6-1 86%	5-2 71%	3-4 43%
GASOlast 7	5-2 71%	3-3-1 50%	2-5 29%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GAST−3.6 →−0.5▲ 3.1#64

GASO+2.5 →−0.6▼ 3.1#65

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

GAST

Longer bar = better

GASO

#46

Offense

Even

#48

#62

Defense

Even

#73

+0.4 #30

Turnovers

◀ GAST better

−0.4 #101

67 plays #76

Pace

GASO faster ▶

79 plays #2

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GAST has the ball

Advantage: GAST offense

	GAST off	GASO def	Edge
Points / game	30.9 #47	24.3 #63	Even
Yards / play	6.17 #47	5.85 #93	GAST
PPA / play	+0.21 #35	+0.11 #78	GAST
Success rate	43% #54	41% #59	Even

When GASO has the ball

Even matchup

	GASO off	GAST def	Edge
Points / game	32.3 #41	22.9 #52	Even
Yards / play	5.71 #71	5.80 #89	Even
PPA / play	+0.15 #59	+0.09 #66	Even
Success rate	48% #22	39% #42	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

GAST scoring against the GASO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GAST scored	7.0 #47	12.0 #12	19.0 #17	5.4 #85	6.4 #72	11.9 #86
GASO allowed	4.0 #43	7.0 #65	11.0 #50	8.4 #117	4.9 #41	13.3 #80

GASO scoring against the GAST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GASO scored	7.0 #47	13.0 #7	20.0 #13	6.9 #52	5.4 #95	12.3 #79
GAST allowed	1.9 #5	6.3 #46	8.1 #14	9.7 #127	5.0 #43	14.7 #99

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.