Georgia Southern @ Texas State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2023)

Sat, Nov 4, 2023, 5:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Texas State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff76°F8 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Georgia Southern

6-2 · Power #92

final

Final

Texas State

5-3 · Power #73

▲ winner

Closing spread

TXST -2.5

✓ TXST W

Total

68.5

▲ Over · 69 pts

Model before kickoff

GASO 32–34 TXST

✓ TXST (56%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTXST -2.5

Total68.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseTXST -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close68.5

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 53%, covered 45% (64 games)ⓘ

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseTXST -2.5

Total68.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TXST as a 2.5-point home favorite against GASO, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: TXST won 45–24; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 69 points went over 68.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.8 against an average line of 3; 85.4 points a game (usually 54). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LOU vs UVA 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	33–34	L	U69.5
Very close	TROY vs GAST 2020 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	34–36	L	O68.5
Very close	WKU vs UTSA 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	46–52	L	O71.25
Very close	MIZ vs TENN 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	24–62	L	O66.25
Very close	UL vs TXST 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-1	34–30	W	U67.5
Very close	BYU vs UVA 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	66–49	W	O66.5
Very close	SMU vs HOU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	77–63	W	O66
Very close	SMU vs MEM 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & season form	-4.5	34–31	L	U68.5
Very close	FRES vs NEV 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	34–32	L	O64.5
Very close	TULN vs SMU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	59–24	W	O65

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GASO WWLLW	4-3-1	57%	1-2	0-2
TXST LWLLL	4-4	50%	1-3	2-2

Venue/role: GASO away, as underdog; TXST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GASO UUUOO	3-5	38%	6-2
TXST UOUUU	2-5	29%	5-3

Went over in Q4. Of 13 earlier overs in games with totals 64.5–72.5, 31% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GASOlast 8	6-2 75%	4-3-1 57%	3-5 38%
TXSTlast 8	5-3 63%	4-4 50%	2-5 29%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GASO+2.5 →0.0▼ 2.5#62

TXST+3.4 →−2.2▼ 5.6#78

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

GASO

Longer bar = better

TXST

#45

Offense

TXST better ▶

#22

#71

Defense

Even

#68

−0.3 #93

Turnovers

◀ GASO better

−0.6 #119

78 plays #2

Pace

◀ GASO faster

73 plays #20

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GASO has the ball

Advantage: GASO offense

	GASO off	TXST def	Edge
Points / game	33.8 #28	28.8 #97	GASO
Yards / play	5.76 #64	5.61 #71	Even
PPA / play	+0.16 #57	+0.07 #51	Even
Success rate	47% #30	40% #52	GASO

When TXST has the ball

Advantage: TXST offense

	TXST off	GASO def	Edge
Points / game	35.1 #22	24.6 #62	TXST
Yards / play	6.68 #18	5.84 #92	TXST
PPA / play	+0.21 #36	+0.08 #58	TXST
Success rate	49% #13	42% #70	TXST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 133 FBS teams

GASO scoring against the TXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GASO scored	7.4 #38	13.5 #6	20.9 #11	6.9 #54	6.0 #89	12.9 #75
TXST allowed	5.3 #71	7.0 #64	12.3 #61	6.0 #72	10.5 #129	16.5 #116

TXST scoring against the GASO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TXST scored	10.4 #9	11.5 #18	21.9 #7	5.1 #96	8.1 #35	13.3 #66
GASO allowed	4.4 #46	6.1 #44	10.5 #40	9.1 #124	5.0 #34	14.1 #93

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.